Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0

The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease

Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations

At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

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Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines

Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November

The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data...

11th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply

The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to start easing policy from next February

Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief

The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on...

20th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting

We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey...

13th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze

National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that...

6th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025

The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past buoyant public demand

We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled

When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the...

16th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced

We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off...

8th August 2024 · 6 mins read