Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer

Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the...

10th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA Board, Aus. Budget Update, NZ GDP

Although the Australian Treasurer’s new appointments to the RBA’s monetary policy committee were well received, the same cannot be said of his mid-year Budget Update. The government appears intent on...

20th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA’s dovish tilt won’t bring an earlier rate cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia struck a rather dovish tone at its meeting this week. As a result, markets see a growing chance that the Bank will begin its easing cycle as soon as February. However...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Despite sluggish activity, RBA will only cut in May

With Australian Q3 GDP data underperforming expectations, markets now think the RBA could begin its easing cycle as soon as April. To be sure, it is certainly the case that private demand showed few...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to cut rates in Q2 as underlying inflation softens

The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure

The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2

We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0

The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump...

8th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease

Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations

At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

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Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines

Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November

The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data...

11th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply

The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to start easing policy from next February

Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read