RBA Watch RBA’s easing cycle will be shallow The Reserve Bank of Australia will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 1 st April and will probably still sound hawkish. However, with inflation set to soften a touch... 26th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will look past pre-election budget sweeteners As expected, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveiled a slew of new spending measures in today’s pre-election Budget. However, we don’t believe the scope of fiscal expansion is large enough to keep... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Net migration to slow further, supporting disinflation We learned this week that Australia's population growth continued to slow in Q3 2024, as net migration flows eased significantly. We believe that concerns about a potential resurgence in international... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 25) 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Ignore Chalmers’ predictions of spending restraint If the Coalition wins the federal election due by May, the fiscal stance that Treasurer Jim Chalmers will unveil in the Budget on 25 th March may end up being supplanted by a more restrictive one... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Australian consumer in a soft patch, RBNZ’s Orr exits Australian national accounts data showed that private consumption growth edged up only modestly in Q4. What's more, timely data suggest that it could actually soften again this quarter. However... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) Today’s retail sales release should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the pickup in consumer spending last quarter may have been a one-off. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the Bank will... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price slowdown has further to run The modest uptick in Australian house prices last month is unlikely to mark the beginning of a meaningful rally. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to deliver a shallow easing cycle, housing... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t drop its guard just yet At first glance, data released this week should give the RBA greater confidence that it has brought price pressures under control. Both headline and underlying inflation remained within the Bank's 2-3... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 2025) 26th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025) 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
