US Economics Weekly Delta variant and fiscal limbo add to uncertainty Although the $600bn bipartisan infrastructure deal fell at the first hurdle in the Senate this week, centrist Republican Senators indicated that they would be willing to provide the support to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth outlook not quite as rosy now The drop back in Treasury yields has accelerated over the past few weeks, as persistent supply shortages and the spread of new coronavirus variants have raised doubts about the pace of real economic... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stronger payrolls intensify focus on tapering We aren’t convinced that it will mark the start of a sustained acceleration, but the stronger gain in June payrolls will embolden those Fed officials calling for an earlier end to the Fed’s asset... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed officials split; Biden backs infrastructure deal Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the script in his congressional appearance earlier this week, arguing it was “very, very, unlikely” that the US would experience a return to the high inflation of the... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed shifting back to risk management mode The upward revisions to the “dot plot” at this week’s FOMC meeting were hard to square with Fed officials’ continued belief that higher inflation will prove mostly transitory. Nevertheless, we also... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging prices begin to weigh on confidence Negotiations over a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure spending continued this week, but the Republicans and Democrats are still so far apart in their offers that it is only a matter of time... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remaining dovish as supply-side constraints mount In a relatively quiet week, the few data releases we did get added to signs that shortages are pushing up prices further and restraining the pace of economic recovery. 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly A whiff of stagflation The extent of the surge in CPI inflation in April specifically caught us a little off guard, although we had been expecting a pick-up in response to the reopening and the shortages of raw materials... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed and the frog Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen set the cat among the pigeons this week when she remarked in an interview “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn... 7th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic take-off already underway President Joe Biden’s Families Plan wouldn’t provide much of an additional boost, but the stimulus already in place should ensure that the economic recovery goes from strength to strength, with the... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus boosting prices as much as output This week brought further signs that the surge in demand is triggering much stronger price pressures. 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing back as economy shifts into higher gear The economic data released this week reinforce our view that the recent fiscal stimulus and continued lifting of virus restrictions will drive a marked acceleration in GDP growth this year, while also... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long, winding road to an infrastructure deal The news that a new interpretation of Senate rules would allow Democrats to pass a second reconciliation bill this fiscal year has the potential to be a gamechanger, but we expect moderate Senate... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read