US Economics Weekly Fed lining up more support as fiscal talks drag on The second-quarter GDP data released this week, which showed output plunging by a record 32.9% annualised, highlighted the unprecedented hit to the economy from the pandemic. We know that activity... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Focus on near-term and medium-term fiscal plans With the pace of infections rising across most of the country, and the economic recovery in danger of going into reverse, we suspect that Congress will, at least partially, extend the enhanced $600... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery is losing momentum A growing range of indicators suggest the economic recovery stalled in late-June and early July, in part because of a resurgence in virus infections. There’s clearly a risk that the virus continues... 10th July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly New wave of infections prompts renewed closures In a quiet week for data, the ISM non-manufacturing index is the only release of note. Echoing the already reported rebound in the manufacturing index, we expect the non-manufacturing index to recover... 2nd July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden now the front runner The latest polling and betting odds data suggest that Joe Biden is pulling ahead of Donald Trump in the race to win November’s Presidential election. Trump’s approval ratings have taken a hit from his... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing sector will take longer to recover There was a large disconnect between the extent of the sizeable rebound in retail sales in May and the much more lacklustre recovery in manufacturing output last month. We expect the gap to close over... 19th June 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hold rates at near-zero for years There is still huge uncertainty over how quickly activity will recover from the pandemic, but it’s clear that the economy is set for an unprecedented period of near-zero interest rates. 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in hiring adds to signs of faster recovery The 2.5 million rebound in employment last month reverses only a small fraction of the jobs lost since February. But considering we and the consensus had been braced for another large decline, it... 5th June 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is the second wave coming? A month after the first states began to re-open their economies there is both good and bad news. The good news is that, up to now at least, there is no evidence that re-opening has led to a much... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long road to recovery Most of the 50 states have now begun to ease their lockdown restrictions, with many states in the interior now maintaining only minor restrictions on normal activity, although states on both coasts... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly CPI overstating near-term deflationary pressure The news this week that core consumer prices fell by 0.4% m/m in April has added to the speculation that the pandemic could tip the US into a Japan-style deflation. Rather than reflecting a decline in... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market catastrophe The confirmation that non-farm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, with job losses in every sector underlines just how deep and widespread the economic shock over the past six weeks has... 8th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly April to mark the low point for economy It’s increasingly clear that the economy took an unprecedented hit in March and April. Barring a renewed national upsurge in coronavirus cases, however, the gradual lifting of containment measures... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP contraction only a taste of what’s to come The plunge in activity in the second half of March, as coronavirus restrictions proliferated, means that the first-quarter GDP data – due next week – will show output contracting for the first time in... 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Incoming data just get worse and worse The massive declines in retail sales and industrial production last month make it clear that the slump in activity, which only began in mid-March, was unprecedented in terms of both its speed and its... 17th April 2020 · 6 mins read
