US Economics Weekly Is it finally infrastructure week? News reports suggest President Joe Biden will unveil plans for a large infrastructure package on Wednesday. We expect the package will take much longer and be harder to pass than the $1.9trn American... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed banking on inflation staying muted The Fed made clear this week that it still has no plans to raise interest rates within the next three years. But that apparently rests on the belief that the strongest economic growth in nearly 40... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats far from done with stimulus With President Joe Biden having signed the $1.9trn American Rescue Plan into law, the discussion will now move on to the American Recovery Plan, the complementary package that will focus on longer... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus set to drive growth and inflation higher The sell-off in Treasuries continued this week, as Fed officials signalled that they are not overly concerned by rising yields and the Senate closed in on passing President Joe Biden’s $1.9trn fiscal... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed doubles down on its new policy framework Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress – together with similarly-dovish speeches from key Board members this week – underlined the Fed’s new commitment to the full employment side of its... 26th February 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy buoyed by stimulus and drop in virus cases Economic activity seems to have responded strongly to the latest round of fiscal stimulus passed in mid-December and the drop in coronavirus case numbers, which has allowed for the easing of... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Dovish Powell; economy emerging from hibernation With fiscal negotiations taking a backseat to the impeachment trial in the Senate, a dovish Powell speech took the limelight this week, together with signs that virus restrictions will continue to be... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pushing forward with stimulus plans This week the Democrats took the first step toward forcing a large-scale stimulus through the Senate using reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority. But even though it required an all... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing firm despite more positive outlook The rapidly accelerating vaccine rollout means that the economic outlook continues to brighten. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone in his post-FOMC press conference this week reinforces our... 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal willingness to accommodate fiscal boost Incoming President Job Biden signed a flurry of executive orders during his first couple of days in office, but it remains to be seen whether the divided Senate will support his broader agenda... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden era begins with high hopes The inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden and new impeachment of President Donald Trump may signal a dramatic shift in the political landscape, but it remains to be seen whether hopes of a... 15th January 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Not the quiet first week back we were all hoping for Although we think that markets are still over-estimating the potential for additional large-scale fiscal stimulus this year, the Democrats’ unexpected victories in both Georgia Senate run-off... 8th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery falters; Congress stalls; Fed tweaks The decline in retail sales in November confirmed the message from the slumping high-frequency activity data and the rising trend in jobless claims – namely that the restrictions imposed by many... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy stalling on eve of vaccine rollout This week brought more evidence that the economic rebound has faded in the closing weeks of the year. The near-term risks are still skewed firmly to the downside, even as the vaccine rollout gets... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal negotiations go down to the wire (again) Markets received a boost this week from the more positive news on the possibility of a (smaller) fiscal relief package, but it still seems unlikely that a deal will be made that satisfies all sides... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Yellen to be first female Treasury Secretary This week the markets were buoyed by the news that President-elect Joe Biden intends to nominate Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary but, while she is eminently qualified, her lack of political deal... 25th November 2020 · 8 mins read
