US Economics Weekly Slump in housing and imports This week’s data releases painted a mixed picture of activity: from the good, to the bad, and the just plain ugly. Canada Drop-In (26th October): We’re holding a briefing on the Bank of Canada... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to keep hiking until inflation subsides We still think it’s only a matter of time before the easing of inflationary pressure evident in the surveys and other private-sector data shows up in the official figures. But the September CPI report... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed’s tightening trigger financial instability? The recent liquidity issues faced by UK pensions funds and problems at a few European banks have led to speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes will trigger some form of financial instability... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy weak despite export strength The revised GDP data released this week confirm the economy was already struggling ahead of the more recent tightening in financial conditions. Although surging exports appear to have driven a strong... 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed resolute in battle to slay the inflationary dragon The Fed’s transformation from inflation-denier back to Volcker-style inflation-slayer is all but complete. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his press conference this week, “we have got to get... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker growth will bear down on inflation soon The economic data this week suggest that slowing activity growth isn’t yet putting downward pressure on core inflation, which is likely to see the Fed remain in hawkish mode at its meeting next week... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising despite labour market resilience Our tracker models suggest the odds of a recession are rising although, on balance, we still expect a period of weak growth rather than an outright contraction. If we are wrong and a recession drives... 2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly With inflation outlook improving, pivot is still on In a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Better news for the Fed going into Jackson Hole With the rebound in activity growth in July coming against a backdrop of easing inflation, we still think the Fed will hike rates by a smaller 50bp next month. 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics More good news on inflation coming soon The drop back in CPI inflation in July wasn’t enough alone to convince Fed officials to change their plans for interest rate hikes. But we expect the better news on inflation to continue over the... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pivot to fiscal tightening Alongside Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this week, the recently-passed Chips and Science Act is another illustration of the slow-motion decoupling that is developing between the US and China. The modest... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as GDP sinks The second-quarter decline in GDP was not quite as bad as it looked, and with the Fed sounding increasingly comfortable with continuing to raise interest rates through a period of weak economic growth... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hike by 75bp despite weak GDP growth Fed officials may have briefly contemplated an even bigger hike following the news of the further surge in inflation in June but, with inflation expectations dropping back and the incoming news on... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation up, but better news coming The bigger-than-expected rise in CPI inflation to 9.1% in June triggered speculation that the Fed might follow the Bank of Canada with a 100bp rate hike later this month. But the disappointing... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Market moves may give the Fed an easier task With the June employment report suggesting fears of an imminent recession are misplaced, the Fed looks set to press ahead with aggressive rate hikes over the coming months. That said, recent sharp... 8th July 2022 · 8 mins read
