US Economics Weekly Fed to kick off tightening cycle We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing at least five interest rate hikes this year in total. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging energy prices will add to inflation Surging energy prices will push inflation even higher in the next month or two but, unlike in Europe, the fallout on the real economy should be relatively modest, allowing the Fed to push ahead with... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Waller ramps up the hawkishness In his speech late last night, Christopher Waller became the first Fed Governor to throw his weight behind St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s call for 100bp of rate hikes by the middle of the year... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy unscathed by Omicron In a week when we learned that producer price inflation, retail sales and industrial production all came in hotter than expected in January, interest rate expectations nevertheless declined, as... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising inflation adds to pressure on the Fed The news this week that CPI inflation climbed to a new high of 7.5% in January prompted another surge in interest rate expectations. 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shortages appear to be stabilising As it turns out, employment gains were much stronger than previously thought over the final few months of last year and the Omicron wave did little to slow the pace of growth in January. With the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fears of Ratemaggedon are overdone Fed Chair Jerome Powell fuelled fears of a Ratemaggedon with a hawkish performance in his press conference. But even with both wage and underlying price inflation running at near 40-year highs, we... 28th January 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron reaches plateau, leaving Fed free to hike We expect the Fed to deliver some heavy hints at next week’s FOMC that it is planning an interest rate hike in March. With the Omicron wave now past its peak nationally, there is little to hold the... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed becoming more hawkish by the day The continued surge in Omicron infections suggests that the disappointing December activity data will be followed by further weakness in January, but there are no signs that it will delay the Fed’s... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets wrong to doubt the Fed Market pricing suggests investors remain unconvinced that the now-hawkish Fed will hike interest rates as high as officials are projecting, either because inflation will drop back more quickly or... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Pivotal week coming up for the Fed Following Chair Jerome Powell’s markedly more hawkish tone at his recent congressional testimony, markets are braced for the Fed to pivot hard at next week’s FOMC meeting 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell signals turning point in policy Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week was markedly more hawkish. We wouldn’t characterise it as a full-blown Volcker moment. But there could be parallels with former Chair Alan... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may... 24th November 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Momentum could be sapped by winter wave While the recent performance of sales and production has been encouraging, the possibility of another winter wave of coronavirus infections represents a significant downside risk to activity over the... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rampant; Infrastructure week is finally here Headline CPI inflation hit 6.2% last month with core CPI inflation climbing to 4.6%. Energy prices look set to drop back a little over the next couple of months, but core inflation will breach 5%, as... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
