UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal outlook isn’t as bad as it looks The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was right to say today that now is not the time to tighten fiscal policy. But given the OBR’s downbeat forecasts, the biggest danger is that the government is lured into... 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England won’t push back against higher gilt yields The Bank of England won’t be worried by the recent jump in gilt yields given that it has been triggered by the growing possibility of a COVID-19 vaccine improving the economic outlook. As such, we... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England not out of QE firepower There have been some concerns that as well as there being little scope to generate stimulus through interest rate cuts, the Bank of England is now reaching its limits on Quantitative Easing (QE). But... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
