UK Economics Which measure of government net debt is most useful? In last week’s Budget speech, the Chancellor referred to the lower “underlying” measure of government net debt rather than the higher “headline” measure. You’d be forgiven for thinking he did that... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Spring Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Spring Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 3rd March and to provide some instant... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Soaring earnings growth not as good as it looks The surge in average earnings growth to a ten-year high is not what it seems as it’s partly due to large numbers of lower-paid workers losing their jobs. As such, the upward pressure on inflation from... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Why we think the rally in sterling will continue The pound has performed better than all other G10 currencies so far in 2021 (see Chart 1), rising from $1.36 at the start of January to almost a three-year high of $1.41 now. We expect the strength of... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Roadmap leaves economy on course to recover rapidly We think that the government’s roadmap for easing England’s current COVID-19 lockdown will direct the economy back to its pre-pandemic size by Q1 2022. With the Chancellor and the Bank of England... 22nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will QE start costing the government money? There are fears that, by making the government’s debt servicing costs more vulnerable to short-term rises in interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) is storing up trouble for when Bank Rate rises... 10th February 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics MPC not ready to use negative rates…and may not need to Our forecasts that the Bank of England would not be able to use negative interest until the middle of the year and wouldn’t be willing to speed up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) proved to be... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Plunging population would threaten extent of GDP recovery The possible sharp fall in the population since the start of the pandemic may explain up to 1.8 percentage points of the underperformance of the UK economy last year relative to its peers and, more... 21st January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 The Bank of England may not be ready to use negative interest rates until H2 2021. And by then, COVID-19 restrictions might be easing and the economy could be growing rapidly. In any case, if the Bank... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three lockdowns, two recessions, one big recovery The third lockdown to contain COVID-19 means that the economy will start the year in recession and the recovery will be delayed again. Even so, by expecting the economy to regain its pre-crisis level... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
