UK Commercial Property Update Do the latest job figures hint at weaker office rents? UK employment has faltered of late and, though growth is expected to improve, no return to the buoyancy of the recent past is in prospect. While headcount has become a weaker indicator of office... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth pessimism appears misplaced The consensus is still downbeat on the outlook for retail rents, with growth expected to underperform even the struggling office sector. But with a decent consumer recovery on the horizon we think... 2nd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why are residential yields so low? Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why we think yield compression will be limited With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values? Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to... 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Notes from our residential investment roundtables At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Hotel demand to recover as cost-of-living crisis abates Spending on hotels and overseas visits to the UK are still not back to their pre-COVID-19 levels. But with cost-of-living pressures set to ease around the world and consumer spending likely to outpace... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Share of remote work key to global office performance The wide divergence in global office market performance to-date has been driven by significant differences in the return to office and the impact that has had on occupiers’ leasing decisions. US... 29th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Residential rental growth to outperform The Q1 RICS commercial survey provided further evidence that occupier demand has turned the corner, with demand ticking up in the industrial and office sectors. But with availability still elevated... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Multifamily rents set to outperform New more granular MSCI data shows that the outperformance of residential property over the past decade was primarily down to student housing. Indeed, only in the past couple of years have multifamily... 22nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
