UK Commercial Property Update BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) - Demand and supply of credit contracts Surging interest rates caused mortgage demand to slump in Q3 at the same time as rising defaults led lenders to tighten mortgage credit conditions. Similarly, it became more difficult to secure... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Manufacturing a potential thorn in the side for industrial The UK manufacturing sector has faltered in recent months, as rising interest rates and slowing economies in many parts of the world have cut global demand. That spells trouble for manufacturing... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower food prices will benefit supermarkets Food price inflation is now falling back, which will help boost supermarket profits. That means the recent underperformance of the supermarket sector relative to all-retail will soon come to an end... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail sector defies cost-of-living crisis The leisure sector is now feeling the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, with rising vacancy and declining rents. But we don’t think the retail sector will follow in its footsteps. Households are... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Financial conditions still point to weaker construction Commercial construction surveys have shown improving activity in recent months, despite high interest rates and a slowing economy. Our Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) suggest that might be because... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Rishi Sunak draws his UK climate battle lines The news that UK Prime Minster Sunak is set to further dilute the government’s climate policies demonstrates that when the political going gets tough, climate policies are the first to fall by the... 20th September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Record fall in passing rents highlights office weakness The surprising strength of office market rents looks to reflect the increased use of incentives. Indeed, passing rents have seen a sharp decline, with all-office annual growth recently falling to a... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Who pays for greener buildings? The UK government’s decision to block Marks and Spencer’s (M&S’) re-development of its flagship store highlights the challenges in the transition to net zero. In particular, while authorities are... 7th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 23) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a reversal of last quarter’s forecast upgrades, bringing the consensus view more in line with our own. The surge in interest rates thanks to high inflation is... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the fall in CRE equity prices? Rising interest rates have pushed down commercial property equities, which implies capital values will come under further downward pressure. That said, the large correction in equities seen in 2022... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the decline in industrial take-up? The sharp drop in industrial take-up in recent quarters may be a sign that the sector is becoming more vulnerable to changes in economic conditions. Indeed, the decline has coincided with a 25% drop... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre rental recovery peters out In contrast to shops and retail warehouses, the nascent recovery in shopping centre rents has already faded. The shift to remote work and greater exposure to online competition has led to relatively... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices drop-in: Answers to client questions Last week, we held a Drop-In on the future of office property. This Update provides answers for a variety of questions from a UK perspective that emerged from the discussion. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update The implications of the latest hike in gilt yields The recent rise in gilt yields to levels above those seen in the aftermath of the mini-Budget has not triggered a similar rush to sell property assets. In part because past falls in capital values... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
