UK Commercial Property Update Rising cost of foreign holidays to support hotel demand Hotel demand has suffered recently from the impact of high inflation and interest rates weighing on discretionary spending. But thanks to the soaring cost of foreign holidays and a revival in... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial bubble poses a small risk to rents With hindsight, part of the boom in the industrial sector seen during and after the pandemic now looks like a bubble. That raises the risk that the overhang of assets started during that period of... 1st December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have downwardly revised their expectations for 2024, as a downgrade in capital value growth outweighed some improvement in rents. That leaves us... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update WeWork collapse adds to office concerns The bankruptcy of WeWork in the US was a predictable end to a long-running saga. Its effects on office markets will not be systemic, but they will reinforce existing weaknesses and pile more bad news... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment drop-in: Answers to client questions This week we held a drop-in on the prospects for commercial property investment in the UK and Europe. This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the discussion. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 2023) Having started the year on a somewhat promising footing, all-property occupier demand has weakened since and fell further in Q3. The demand balances for offices and retail remained significantly... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Resurgence in London office demand unlikely to last Active demand for London office space hit a four year high in Q3, but we doubt that will drive a decline in vacancy rates. Most of the rise will reflect churn as firms make moves that had been delayed... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update AI set to transform the real estate landscape The diffusion of AI technologies should be a fillip for the global economy over the coming years. That will bring benefits for real estate performance in developed economies, particularly in those... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) - Demand and supply of credit contracts Surging interest rates caused mortgage demand to slump in Q3 at the same time as rising defaults led lenders to tighten mortgage credit conditions. Similarly, it became more difficult to secure... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Manufacturing a potential thorn in the side for industrial The UK manufacturing sector has faltered in recent months, as rising interest rates and slowing economies in many parts of the world have cut global demand. That spells trouble for manufacturing... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower food prices will benefit supermarkets Food price inflation is now falling back, which will help boost supermarket profits. That means the recent underperformance of the supermarket sector relative to all-retail will soon come to an end... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail sector defies cost-of-living crisis The leisure sector is now feeling the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, with rising vacancy and declining rents. But we don’t think the retail sector will follow in its footsteps. Households are... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Financial conditions still point to weaker construction Commercial construction surveys have shown improving activity in recent months, despite high interest rates and a slowing economy. Our Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) suggest that might be because... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
