UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2023) The narrowing in interest margins reported by mortgage lenders in the Credit Conditions Survey suggests that mortgage rates won’t fall significantly anytime soon. Meanwhile, it became more difficult... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why has property lending held up? The recent strength of net lending to commercial property can’t be explained by a rise in investment. Instead, we suspect some investors are borrowing against older assets to provide additional equity... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Key questions from our Climate Drop-In We recently held a Drop-in titled “Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property”, which you can view on-demand here. This Update addresses some of the questions we received during... 3rd July 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Flight to quality limited to offices The recent fall in commercial property values has not driven a flight to quality in either the retail or industrial sectors. But there has been a sharp rise in the office non-prime/prime spread, as... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial well-placed to weather recession With interest rates now set to be higher for longer, we are sticking with our view the UK will enter a recession later this year. That will hit occupier demand across all property sectors, but... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a reckoning for European offices? The latest MSCI data indicate that values in western European office markets have held up better since the start of the pandemic when compared with the US and UK. But given these cities face similar... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Legal firms dominate London pre-let share The latest Deloitte Crane Survey showed that legal firms have been an increasingly important sector for London office demand, accounting for a third of all pre-lets since Q3 2022. The rise reflects... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will less generous online returns help retail property? Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update West End sees refurbishment boom The latest crane survey reported a surge in new central London office starts in Q1, which seems poorly timed given a large existing pipeline and waning demand. However a closer look shows that West... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed another upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by improvements to both the rental and capital value outlook. A better-than-expected start to the... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial still dangerously overvalued? Substantial yield compression over the past two years meant that by the middle of 2022 industrial had become the most overvalued sector since our measure began in 1992. That helps explains the... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early yield correction gives retail an advantage A fall in consumption this year will weigh on the retail sector, but an earlier correction in yields and rents mean it is less vulnerable to the recession. Indeed, it was the only sector to see a fall... 24th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A silver lining for hotels? Exhausted household savings and an upcoming recession is set to hit hotel demand over the next year or so. However, as happened in the aftermath of the GFC, some stretched households may decide to... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure sector to suffer as savings are exhausted Despite the cost-of-living crisis, the leisure sector did better than expected last year as households used the savings they had built up during the pandemic to boost spending on recreation and... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office capital values can’t deny gravity forever London office capital values fell by a relatively modest amount in the second half of last year and monthly data show values stabilised in the first two months of 2023. But that has left London office... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
