UK Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy will cut London office rents Even as Central London office vacancy rates rose to a 12-year peak in Q3, annual rental growth ticked-up to three-year high. That marks a reversal from the situation prior to COVID-19, when a tight... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning are property fund outflows? In response to a surge in withdrawals as pension funds rushed to secure cash to meet margin calls, several property funds implemented restrictions to prevent the need for a fire-sale of assets. To... 11th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property capital values set to fall by 15% Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Chinese tourism drought will add to luxury retail woes In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Europe Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK Commercial Property Service. With no end in sight to China’s zero-COVID policy, the... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarkets one winner from cost-of-living crisis After reaching close to a record high at the start of 2021, the gap between supermarket and all-retail equivalent yields has since fallen back to its pre-COVID-19 level. That is likely to reflect the... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Energy price cap worsens the property outlook By boosting real disposable incomes, the energy price cap will give some support to commercial rents, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such as leisure and retail. However, that benefit needs to... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Boom in hybrid working to delay office demand impact Recent surveys suggest that our forecast that 50% of office employees will go into work every day is too high. But it also looks like the vast majority of those working from home will only do so part... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Build to Rent will continue to thrive The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Stretched consumers to cut back on leisure spending As the cost-of-living crisis bites consumers will be forced to cut back on discretionary spending, with the leisure sector set to suffer as a result. At the same time, operators are facing shortages... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Recession to weigh on the property outlook The latest revisions to our UK economic view indicate that a recession is now unavoidable. This will weigh on commercial property performance into next year, but the dip is expected to be fairly mild... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
