UK Commercial Property Focus Will non-bank lending really help the property market? Even if we are right and non-bank financial institutions, e.g. insurance companies and pension funds, start to lend more meaningfully to commercial property this can only ever be a partial and/or... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will commercial property prices start to fall again in 2012? Despite recent financial markets turmoil and the knock-on effects for the real economy, we do not think that the outlook for growth and employment has yet deteriorated to a level that merits a... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Can hotels weather the consumer spending slump? By contrast with the track record of outperformance, we expect hotel property total returns to average about 7% p.a. over 2011-13, below the all-property figure of about 8%. 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How much further can the Central London office boom run? The fact that vacancy rates are below average suggests that IPD City and West End office rental and capital values will continue to rise for another six to 12 months. But, given the subdued demand... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Permission-free conversions: a watershed proposal? The government’s proposal for permission-free office/industrial to residential conversions is pretty radical and, relative to what might otherwise have occurred, we estimate that the proposals could... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will London offices outperform the Big Six over 2011-13? Our analysis suggests that total returns in London’s City and West End office markets over 2011-13 will be higher than other major UK cities, i.e. the “Big Six”. Our forecast is that Central London... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan A The Budget was a fairly cautious affair, with the Chancellor introducing a fiscally neutral package of measures and hence sticking closely to the existing austerity plans. Nonetheless, the Government... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are lenders really set to abandon delay and pray policies? It seems almost certain that over the coming quarters lenders will become less willing to extend maturing loans and will also increase the pressure on borrowers to sell property and repay non... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Where will the property to bond yield spread go next? We suspect that the next material move in the property to bond yield spread is more likely to be down than up. That move may still be some way off, however, perhaps not even until 2013. But, when it... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for leisure property returns? Over the next four to five years, we expect leisure total returns to average about 6% per year. That is lower than the returns we expect in the office and industrial sectors (both 7% per year) and... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Beyond austerity: the long-run outlook for high street shops With the influence of supermarkets and internet retailing likely to grow, we think that a downward trend in real high street shop rents is possible over the long run, with real rents falling by 1% to... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Effect of consumer austerity on high street shops investment We think that consumer spending will struggle to grow at all for at least the next two to three years. Taking the period 2010-14 as a whole, this will result in average total returns for high street... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Property in the new Parliament At the time of the 2015 election, we expect commercial property prices to be more or less unchanged from their current levels. Yet despite the low interest rate environment, the outlook for... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Does the yield curve foreshadow property performance? Our analysis suggests that the UK government bond yield curve has no predictive power for commercial property yields. The yield curve is potentially useful as a tool for forecasting rents, although it... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will real UK commercial property rental values stay flat? Over the next 20 to 30 years, in contrast with the flat trend that has been experienced since the 1950s, we think that real UK commercial property rental values could rise slightly. As a guide, our... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will the retail sector again outperform following recession? Over the next three years, retail property is set to deliver average real capital gains of around 1% per year (roughly 3% nominal), lower than the figures of around 3% (5% nominal) in the industrial... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
