UK Commercial Property Focus Is the revival of hotel investment a sign of better times ahead? To us, the recent surge in hotel deals is not indicative of any sharp, sector-specific improvement in the underlying demand drivers. Instead, investors simply seem to have been making opportunistic... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Shopping centres: will the out-of-town/in-town gap get wider? The divergence between out-of-town and in-town shopping centre capital values is not over yet. We suspect that, over the next three years, stronger growth in rental values will deliver further gains... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus South East offices: poised to outperform? Central London aside, weak economic growth and fragile business confidence are acting as a drag on occupier demand, pushing back a recovery in commercial property markets. South East offices will not... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK build its way to a recovery? The construction sector has endured a terrible recession, with double-digit declines in output and employment. In theory, there is scope for a sharp comeback. But given the squeeze on credit and... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How strong is the case for distribution warehouses? We are wary of claims that changes in the nation’s shopping habits will drive a large, positive step-shift in the relative performance of distribution warehouses. Nevertheless, the combination of... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus When will the commercial property deleveraging end? Lenders have already made substantial progress in reducing the stock of commercial property loans on their books. But there is more to do and net lending flows are likely to remain negative for some... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012: More of the same There were few surprises in this Autumn Statement, which simply represented a continuation of the existing strategy. The Statement will do little to get the economy out of its current malaise and a... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The outlook for 2013: a return to rising capital values? Our sense is that investor sentiment has improved in recent months and some are now starting to look ahead to the next commercial property recovery. Accordingly, although the current downturn is not... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012 Preview The Chancellor remains hemmed in by the fiscal position. Indeed, he may well have to choose between introducing even more austerity in the Autumn Statement and letting at least one of his fiscal rules... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The Central London shop boom: when and how will it end? The current boom in Central London standard shop capital values will eventually be put into reverse by a rise in yields. The most likely catalyst for this is shaping up to be a resolution of the euro... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are all forecasters too bearish about industrial rents? Despite a recent improvement in some near-term demand indicators, even the most optimistic forecaster in the consensus only expects nominal industrial rents to be 1% higher at end-2013 than they are... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values? Prices in London’s prime property markets, especially residential, look very vulnerable to a major financial market shock, or anything that might undermine investors’ desire to use London property as... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why leisure property is set to outperform Leisure property will not be immune to the weak economy in 2012 but, over a three-year horizon, there is cause for optimism. Indeed, our upgraded forecast is that leisure total returns will average at... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the low office to retail yield spread sustainable? The current situation, where IPD all-office yields are lower than all-retail yields, is almost unprecedented and, in our view, not sustainable. Consistent with this, our forecasts already envisage... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is weak investment market activity a sign of trouble ahead? Arguably, if the recent drop in commercial property investment market activity is primarily a function of a lack of stock for sale, it will have little bearing on the outlook for capital values. Yet... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How will UK property markets fare in 2012? A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
