UK Commercial Property Focus Standard industrials & distribution warehouses: the outlook Over the next 4-5 years, driven by the recovery in the UK’s manufacturing sector, standard industrial annual total returns could average 10% to 11%. That would be higher than prospective returns from... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Which sector has the best long-term rental value prospects? The current downturn in the commercial property rental values is not over yet. However, taking the next decade as a whole, our view is that, as has been the case historically, retail rental values... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Total returns in 2010: how good could they get? The sharp rebound in investor sentiment and the sheer weight of equity poised to (re-)enter the market make it plausible that commercial property total returns could hit 15% next year. 28th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The effect of voids on landlords' income during a downturn The current commercial property occupier market downturn could run for another 12-18 months, and we think that, depending on the sector, rising voids over that period may take up to 5% off a typical... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The effects of structural lease changes on landlords’ income Structural changes to commercial property leases in the UK (e.g. more break clauses) have meant that landlords’ incomes are now more exposed to market forces than they once were. On the basis of the... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What do recent policy initiatives mean for property? In our view, neither Government intervention in the banking sector nor quantitative easing (QE) is likely to alter the subdued outlook for commercial property lending. Not only will gross new lending... 30th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the medium-term outlook for hotels still relatively favourable? We continue to believe that IPD hotel total returns will be worse than the all-property average in 2009. However, in recognition of the changed economic circumstances, by contrast with what we... 13th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Property in business: a waste of space? How things look now Since the publication of our original Waste of Space report in 2002, we estimate that firms in the UK have taken action that has resulted in annual property-related cost savings of about 1% of GDP... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Our economic forecast revisions: implications for property On the basis of the downgrades to our views on the macroeconomic outlook, peak to trough falls in all-property capital values of about 40% now seem likely. That would be a bigger drop than the... 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is commercial property now fairly valued? At recent levels of bond yields, taking a view over 10 years or more, a plausible central case is that fair-value property yields are about 6%. But because the immediate outlook for rents is poor, for... 8th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus West End office rental values set to slump We now expect West End office rental values to fall by 5%y/y this year, by 15% in 2009 and by a further 5% in 2010. This is in spite of the well-documented absence of a significant pipeline of new... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What are the prospects for lending to commercial property? In a plausible central scenario, the amount of debt that banks make available to the commercial property market will fall by more than two-thirds, from a total of over £300bn between 2003 and 2007 to... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Do commercial property derivatives have predictive power? Commercial property derivative (CPD) pricing data provide a useful steer on the general mood and sentiment of the commercial property investment fraternity. 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Has the property investment market cycle changed? We believe that debt-backed retail and international investors will remain a permanent fixture in the UK’s commercial property market. Their presence will make abrupt yield shifts, like that which we... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for hotel property? Our macroeconomic forecasts suggest that after being one of the best performing property sectors over recent years and the “best of the worst” in 2008, weak economic growth in the UK, Euro-zone and US... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The economic damage from the other property crash The weakening housing market has diverted attention from the crash which has already occurred in the commercial property market. But the commercial property downturn could hit the wider economy by... 9th April 2008 · 1 min read
