Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Which retail markets are most exposed to COVID-19? Before the virus outbreak, falls in prime retail rents were expected to be concentrated in Northern European markets. Now rental falls are likely to spread throughout Southern and Central Eastern... 14th May 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is UK residential property a viable alternative? Relative to past norms, returns on residential property will underperform over the next few years. But with commercial capital values dragged down by the retail sector, institutional investment in the... 5th December 2019 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will the global real estate boom end in tears again? After a sustained upturn in commercial property, yields are well below their historic lows and there are concerns that the current cycle could end as badly as previous ones. But we don’t think a crash... 2nd December 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus How prolonged will the downturn in retail rents be? In the near-term, we think that the ongoing consequences of CVAs and the large share of over-rented property will exacerbate the structural reduction in demand for retail property, causing rental... 25th October 2019 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus A wider ‘new normal’ property to bond yield spread? We think that the all-property to bond yield spread will narrow from its current elevated levels, although this is not likely to happen before late 2020. But, structural changes mean that the property... 11th July 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Assessing the case for build to rent A high house price to rent ratio disadvantages the development of build-to-rent, relative to build-to-sell. And with capital values unlikely to grow as quickly as they have done in the past, total... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Offices the bright spot for Manchester property In relative terms, Manchester has led the way in the recent regional recovery. Even though the outlook for the UK property market is weaker, we expect that Manchester’s regional outperformance will... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus A medical on healthcare property: do claims stack up? Demographic changes clearly favour UK healthcare property. However, the recent strength in investment and returns does not seem to have fully accounted for the cyclical nature of the nursing and care... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Can London office and retail outperform the rest of Europe? London office and retail property are set to produce only middling performance in the next few years, when compared to Western Europe’s other major markets. We think London’s large development... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Will rental growth justify the fall in industrial yields? With all of the hype around the potential impact of online retailing on industrial occupier demand, there has been a big shift in the relative pricing of industrial assets. Although rents in the UK... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Where are the risks from property greatest? In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why is property so often the source of trouble? It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus A weaker outlook for shopping centres The evidence suggests that the headwinds currently buffeting the retail sector are taking a larger toll on shopping centres than on other types of retail property. As a result, and in contrast to the... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is investment activity about to plateau? Whether thinking about the macroeconomic context, relative pricing, or investor sentiment – it is difficult to make a case that investment activity will be notably stronger or weaker than in 2017... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Which sectors offer the best return prospects? High rents and valuations mean that the prospects for total returns in London and South East offices look pretty weak. By contrast, high income returns and brighter rental stories should underpin a... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
