Global Economics Chart Pack Vaccines won’t prevent a weak start to the year While the economic fallout will not be as severe as it was with the first lockdowns, the surge in virus cases will weigh on activity in Q1. Vaccine rollouts should provide a boost to the global... 12th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Divergences by economy and by sector, for now Recent data confirm that global economic activity has continued to recover from the height of coronavirus restrictions in Q2. But while activity in China is now above its pre-virus level, there is... 10th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Worse to come in Q4 despite vaccine hopes Hard GDP data have confirmed that most economies saw sharp rebounds in activity in Q3 after the lockdowns of Q2. But monthly data suggest that the pace of improvement slowed during the quarter and the... 11th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Second waves weighing on consumer recovery While retail sales have rebounded rapidly and are now above pre-virus levels in most major DMs, overall consumer spending has failed to reach the levels seen at the end of last year. That is largely... 12th October 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global recovery has entered a slower phase Economic activity rose sharply in most economies as lockdowns eased during May and June. But, outside China, GDP is still some way below pre-COVID levels and there are signs that renewed virus fears... 11th September 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumer recovery wavers amid virus fears GDP data for Q2 revealed sharp declines in activity in all major economies except China, driven primarily by slumps in consumer spending. Retail sales data for May and June pointed to an encouragingly... 13th August 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Initial rebound at risk from renewed outbreaks Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including... 9th July 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Steep contraction in Q2, but signs of revival from May Available data suggest that world GDP will fall by around 8% q/q in Q2. While China has seen some recovery, GDP in southern Europe probably fell by as much as 25% on the quarter and India appears to... 15th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Past the worst, but recovery to be uneven After falling by around 6% q/q in Q1, world GDP looks set for an equally sharp slump in the second quarter. As major advanced economies are following Asia’s lead in easing containment measures, global... 19th May 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another 5% global contraction coming in Q2 A host of global indicators are showing the devastating effects of the coronavirus and related containment measures on the world economy. The global services PMI dropped to its lowest level on record... 9th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy heading for recession We were among the first to argue that disruption related to the COVID-19 outbreak would bring an end to the world economy’s 43-quarter growth streak. Now that the coronavirus has become a pandemic... 13th March 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus to delay the global recovery The new coronavirus has reshaped the global economic outlook for at least the next couple of quarters. From what data are available, it looks like the hit has been big enough for global GDP to... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth may have troughed Our estimates of Q4 GDP based on national monthly data and surveys imply that global growth slowed from 3.1% to about 2.6% in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms. But we suspect that this will prove... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of global stability mask pockets of weakness Now that all major economies have released their Q3 national accounts, it is clear that the world economy pulled off a third consecutive quarter of around 3% annualised growth. (See Chart 1.) And over... 6th December 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack The data aren’t getting any worse at the global level Given Q3 national accounts data from early-reporting countries and monthly data from other economies, it looks like world GDP growth actually picked up a touch last quarter to just over 3% annualised... 8th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still soft, but not collapsing Available data suggest that world GDP growth was stable at around 3% annualised in Q3, which is below the ten-year average of 3.5% but stronger than the 2.5% pace recorded in the second half of last... 10th October 2019 · 12 mins read
