Global Economics Chart Pack World economy heading for recession We were among the first to argue that disruption related to the COVID-19 outbreak would bring an end to the world economy’s 43-quarter growth streak. Now that the coronavirus has become a pandemic... 13th March 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus to delay the global recovery The new coronavirus has reshaped the global economic outlook for at least the next couple of quarters. From what data are available, it looks like the hit has been big enough for global GDP to... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth may have troughed Our estimates of Q4 GDP based on national monthly data and surveys imply that global growth slowed from 3.1% to about 2.6% in quarter-on-quarter annualised terms. But we suspect that this will prove... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of global stability mask pockets of weakness Now that all major economies have released their Q3 national accounts, it is clear that the world economy pulled off a third consecutive quarter of around 3% annualised growth. (See Chart 1.) And over... 6th December 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack The data aren’t getting any worse at the global level Given Q3 national accounts data from early-reporting countries and monthly data from other economies, it looks like world GDP growth actually picked up a touch last quarter to just over 3% annualised... 8th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still soft, but not collapsing Available data suggest that world GDP growth was stable at around 3% annualised in Q3, which is below the ten-year average of 3.5% but stronger than the 2.5% pace recorded in the second half of last... 10th October 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Resilience of consumer spending is unlikely to last Consumer spending continues to be a relative bright spot in the global economy. Spending growth picked up to a healthy 2.9% quarterly annualised in the advanced economies in Q2 (see Chart 1)... 12th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Sentiment sours on escalation of trade war Sentiment regarding the near-term prospects for the global economy has soured over the past week or two, triggered in part by the escalation of the US-China trade war. Indeed, there are increasing... 8th August 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Labour markets succumbing to the gloom The past month has brought evidence of a continued slowdown in global growth and this weakness now seems to be spreading to labour markets. While advanced economy employment growth held up very well... 5th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Further signs of weakness The escalation of trade tensions is having much bigger effects on financial markets and oil prices than on real economic performance at the global level. That said, there is clear evidence that global... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upturn in global growth unlikely to last “Hard” activity data from earlier in the year and a range of business surveys had pointed to a further slowdown in the world economy in the first quarter, but global GDP growth looks to have surprised... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Divergent surveys offer limited hope World GDP growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q1, but the latest business surveys suggest that growth has bottomed out in some parts of the world at least. March’s unchanged global manufacturing... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weakness focused in the euro-zone and Asia World GDP growth held up well in Q4, but there is clear evidence in surveys and other timely indicators that the global economy took a turn for the worse at the start of 2019. The weakness has been... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack The cycle is turning Many of the indicators that tend to turn first around peaks in the business cycle are now flashing red in several major economies. Admittedly, some survey measures of confidence and real activity... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Entering 2019 on a weaker footing The latest surveys and hard data suggest that the world economy has not regained any momentum in Q4. While the recent slump in oil prices should support global growth, we think that activity will... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
