Global growth slowed throughout the fourth quarter and most economies entered the new year on a weak footing. We have limited hard data for 2021 so far, but timely surveys and our high-frequency Mobility Trackers are generally consistent with a further loss of momentum in January. Infection numbers are now moving in the right direction, but this has prompted restrictions to be relaxed in only a handful of cases. COVID-19 deaths are still high and health systems remain under pressure, so the bulk of containment measures are likely to remain in place throughout Q1. Fortunately, given that most business services seem to have adapted to life under virus restrictions, the economic fallout should continue to be small compared to the falls in output seen in the first half of 2020. Indeed, the resilience of much of the services sector – especially in Europe – explains why Q4 GDP wasn’t quite as bleak as forecasters expected.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services