Europe Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Government struggling to resist austerity The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies generally improved theirbudgetary positions last year. But, with the exception of Ireland, their public debt is not yet falling... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is losing the global currency race Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about the Irish election? Given the political turbulence after recent elections in Spain and Portugal, there are some concerns about the potential outcome of the Irish election, now scheduled for just three weeks’ time. But... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone consumers have spent their oil windfalls The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How exposed is Germany to a hard landing in China? Even a very sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece pass its first bailout review? There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read