Europe Economics Update Trade tariffs pose limited threat to euro-zone exports With the exception of the automobile and agricultural industries, WTO tariffs are low enough to imply that even if no trade deal is reached, Brexit will do little direct damage to euro-zone exporters... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The Netherlands will be hit harder than most by Brexit The Dutch economy is more vulnerable than most to a downturn in the UK. In turn, the negative labour market impact could boost support for eurosceptic parties ahead of next year’s elections. 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank pushes back rate rise expectations Sweden’s Riksbank has pushed back its expectations for a rate rise. Although the negative impact of previous falls in energy prices on inflation is fading and domestic inflationary pressures are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany won’t suffer most from Brexit vote While German exporters are particularly vulnerable to weaker demand from the UK following the Brexit vote, the economy is also well-placed to benefit from any relocation of financial services or... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (June) Portugal and Greece seem have made some good headway towards repairing their public finances so far this year, in contrast with Italy and Spain which are both struggling to make any improvement... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery Recent market movements point to a downturn in euro-zone growth, particularly in the periphery. The ECB is likely to respond by loosening monetary policy, but it cannot solve all of the euro-zone’s... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Brexit, will Quitaly be next? Italian opposition to the EU is strong and several forces could cause that hostility to grow. October’s constitutional reform referendum will provide voters with an opportunity to oust the prime... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth While the UK’s vote for Brexit will have only a small direct effect on euro-zone trade this year and next, the indirect effects on confidence and financial markets may be more serious. We have... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one Despite unexpected gains for the right in Spain, an anti-austerity left-wing coalition may now be more likely than opinion polls had suggested. Either way, the new government will be a very fragile... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the ECB has since introduced new stimulus measures, including its latest TLTROs, we doubt that they will boost... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which country might be next to hold an EU referendum? The UK’s vote to leave the EU has been followed by calls for referendums in other countries. And, notably, euro-scepticism in some countries seems to be even stronger than in the UK. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to cut interest rates in September The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged today, but with the economy weak and inflation set to fall, we think that further loosening is on the way. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
