Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s economy after the election As expected, the Irish election did not provide a clear victor. It is possible that uncertainty while the parties negotiate to form a coalition government could hurt the economy. But the Irish economy... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political limbo poses growing risk to Spain The latest deal between two Spanish political parties does not guarantee the formation of a government and new elections may take place before long. While the economy has weathered the uncertainty... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weakening economy suggests Norges Bank will act in March The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How have euro-zone consumers spent their oil savings? Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reaction to Riksbank’s rate cut won’t deter ECB The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Reaction to Riksbank’s rate cut won’t deter ECB The adverse reaction to the decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to lower its policy rate further below zero illustrates investors’ concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on banks’... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will market turmoil prompt a euro-zone recession? Several financial market indicators are warning of an impending euro-zone recession. For now, even we think that is too pessimistic. But it supports our non-consensus view that growth is set to slow... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank troubles intensify downside risks to growth The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read