Europe Economics Update Berlin election to add to signs of euro-scepticism This Sunday’s election in Berlin is set to bring more evidence of the growing influence of the far-right AfD. While the party does not have enough support to govern Germany, its rise will encourage a... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fearsand the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fears and the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Extension of “Juncker plan” would not be a game-changer The “Juncker plan” has done little to boost investment. Accordingly, an extension of the scheme, proposed by President Juncker this morning, is unlikely to raise the euro-zone’s growth prospects. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB a touch less dovish, but its work is not done President Draghi suggested today that a dramatic increase in ECB policy support is not imminent. But we still expect the Bank to extend its QE programme by six months to next September and it may yet... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to dropto a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk of Spain missing its deficit targets is building As Mariano Rajoy would benefit most from another election, his opponents may yet let him form a government. But with the public finances deteriorating and the deadline for the 2017 budget to be... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone government finances at the start of the third quarter of 2016 were much more of a mixed bag than the reasonably impressive figures from the first half of the year. Worryingly, the data... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What is Italy’s referendum all about? Italy’s forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform is expected to take place in October or November. If the reform is accepted, it could make governments more stable and passing legislation... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) July’s money and credit data show a pick-up in lending growth, despite concerns about banks’ health and the UK’s vote for Brexit. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain weak. 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be excluded from the ECB’s QE programme? The sharp rise in Portugal’s bond yields last week reflected justified concerns about the government’s credit rating. While the Government intends to stick to the EU’s fiscal rules, slow economic... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations If the ECB is to accelerate and extend its asset purchases next month as we anticipate, it will need to address the programme’s limitations, particularly relating to German debt. We think that the ECB... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch investment growth set to slow sharply With Dutch housing investment back at pre-crisis levels, there is little scope for further strong growth. And although interest rates are at record lows, surveys suggest that firms have little need to... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
