Europe Economics Update Five key questions about the French pensions reform The planned reforms to France’s retirement schemes that have provoked strikes and protests this month are important to put the country’s pensions and public finances on a more sustainable footing. But... 20th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Predictions for the euro-zone in 2020 We think the euro-zone will continue to struggle in the first half of 2020 as Germany and Italy remain close to recession and inflation stays well below target, prompting the ECB to loosen policy... 19th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to reverse course next year While today’s decision by the Riksbank to raise the repo rate back to zero was never really in doubt, the fact that two of the Deputy Governors opposed the move lends support to our non-consensus view... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update More policy easing still likely under Lagarde While Ms Lagarde’s assessment of the outlook in today’s press conference was slightly less gloomy than Mr Draghi’s in October, this does not change our view that the ECB will loosen policy again... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bigger problems in France’s labour market than strikes France’s public sector strikes will probably dampen economic activity this quarter, but experience from previous, similar walkouts suggests that the hit to GDP will be small. Moreover, while protests... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Slowing housing market won’t derail Spain’s economy House price inflation in Spain is now slowing but we do not envisage a slump in property prices that would derail GDP growth. After all, economic and financial conditions are supportive and there is... 5th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finnish PM resignation not a “game changer” While the resignation of the Finnish Prime Minister today is unlikely to lead to a collapse in government, but elections may well take place before 2023, when they are due. If so, the nationalist... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is the collapse of Italy’s government? Our economic forecasts for Italy are based on the assumption that the coalition government holds together, at least for the next two years. But in our view, the economic impact would be small if it... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece reforms: progress but more to be done In its first five months in office Greece’s new government has implemented a range of tax cuts that should support the economy and has made a start with some structural reforms. But we are sceptical... 26th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss & Swedish govt. bond yields likely to drop back We doubt that the global pick-up in government bond yields will resume anytime soon, so domestic monetary policy is likely to be the key driver of bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics. With that in... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Only small fiscal stimulus for the euro-zone next year Calls for much looser fiscal policy in the euro-zone are falling on deaf ears. While the Netherlands and Germany have set out fiscal stimuli for 2020, each has past form for running tighter policy... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank preparing for life after physical cash While the Riksbank’s plans for an official digital currency are still in the early stages, we think it is more likely than not that it will launch the e-krona by the mid-2020s. Moreover, we suspect... 20th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
