Europe Economics Update What will a M5S-PD government mean for Italy? The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt sustainable but will remain “junk” Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further easing in the pipeline in Iceland Given the deep downturn in the tourism sector, this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates by a further 25bps came as no surprise to us. We think that... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to rate cuts and target change The account of the Governing Council’s July meeting shows that there was broad support for further policy easing in September and perhaps for a change to the inflation target fairly soon. It leaves us... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer Hopes that Italy’s political crisis will pave the way for a more market-friendly government are likely to be disappointed. The most plausible outcome is a new general election, either later this year... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New CBI Governor unlikely to rock the boat While the imminent change in leadership at the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) is unlikely to affect its current easing bias, the new Governor will have a bigger role in shaping policy than his... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway reaches the end of its tightening cycle While this morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% was in line with expectations, the dovish shift in its tone suggests that the last bastion of... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to cut interest rates to -0.50% by year-end Having seen investors move in line with our previously uber-dovish view on Swedish interest rates in recent months, we now expect the Riksbank to cut the repo rate to -0.50% by the end of the year. 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk to the euro-zone from the trade war is rising The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will not fear being branded a ‘manipulator’ While much of the market’s focus has been on China, Switzerland appears set to become the first country to meet all three of the US Treasury’s criteria of being a ‘currency manipulator’ later this... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a big fiscal boost from Germany German opinion polls suggest that there is a growing chance that the next federal government, which will be formed after elections due by late 2021, will be a coalition including the Green party... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dovish ECB paves way for lower rates elsewhere The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
