Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s election throws up longer-term risks Ireland’ general election result does not change our view on the near-term outlook for the economy, which should maintain a decent pace this year and next. But it does raise questions about the longer... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of coronavirus small but increasing Provided that the coronavirus is brought under control reasonably soon, the consequences for the euro-zone economy should be quite small. Nonetheless, with growth likely to be very sluggish in any... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek pensions: a step in the wrong direction A decade after the start of its first bailout programme, the Greek government has still not reined in the cost of its pension system. And the government’s recent decision to raise pensions suggests... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Coronavirus likely to have small effect on EZ economy As long as the number of coronavirus cases remains low in Europe and contained elsewhere in the world, the impact of the virus on euro-zone GDP is likely to be small and temporary. It would need to be... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Run of positive Swedish data buys the Riksbank time The Swedish economy appears to have stabilised in recent months, but we doubt that this will mark the start of a sustained pick-up in growth. While the Riksbank will stay in wait-and-see mode for the... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No change in ECB dovish stance for now The ECB left its policy settings unchanged today, made little change to its assessment of the economic outlook and said nothing new know about the strategy review. While the markets are pricing in no... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank on hold for foreseeable future This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate on hold at 1.50% was widely expected. We suspect that the Bank will leave rates on hold until 2022 though, if anything, our... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greater focus on housing wouldn’t alter ECB’s stance The ECB could decide in its strategy review to include owner-occupied housing costs in the measure of inflation which it targets. But we think it is unlikely to do so and, in any case, such a change... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation is still low Underlying inflation pressures in the euro-zone have been building over the past five years, but so slowly that it’s barely perceptible. And rather than being the start of a new trend, the jump in... 20th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has not shut the door on further easing The account of December’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Governing Council is content to leave monetary policy unchanged for some time. But it left the option of further easing on the table – an... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update France a European bright spot despite slower growth The French economy is likely to continue to perform reasonably well this year as solid consumer spending growth partly offsets fiscal tightening and a slowdown in investment. Moreover, the pensions... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to watch for in 2020 Our big calls for 2020 are that economic growth and inflation will generally be weaker than the consensus expects, and that rates cuts are on the cards in Switzerland and Sweden. 23rd December 2019 · 6 mins read
