Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swishing in Stockholm We have just returned from two days of client meetings in Stockholm from which the key takeaway is that we are not alone in being puzzled by the Riksbank’s stance. Policymakers seem determined to... 14th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surveys point to stagnation in Italy The latest activity and confidence indicators point to continued near-stagnation in the Italian economy. While household consumption is likely to keep growing, prospects for investment and exports are... 12th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish political impasse to drag on The prospect of further political stalemate in Spain, following yesterday’s inconclusive election result, does not alter the short-term economic outlook. But it does mean that there is little chance... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland to slow in line with rest of euro-zone Economic growth in Finland outpaced the euro-zone average before the global financial crisis but has been broadly in line with it in recent years. We think that this trend will continue and that... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economy to slow further after election Spain’s fourth general election in as many years looks likely to result in further political stasis, but we doubt that this will have a detrimental effect on the economy. Nevertheless, weaker consumer... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hike wouldn’t do much for embattled krona The Riksbank appears determined to raise interest rates into an economic slowdown. While higher policy rates may provide some support for the Swedish krona, we still think that it will continue to... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi bows out, but further policy support to come Outgoing President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s decision last month to introduce a raft of measures and downplayed the Governing Council’s divisions. As euro-zone growth is set to remain weak and... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Hawkish Riksbank to reverse course in 2020 Having left its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning, we do not doubt the Riksbank’s clear intent to raise it to zero in December. However, with economic growth set to slow in 2020, and underlying... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brighter outlook for Norwegian krone next year While we think that there is still a bit more scope for the Norwegian krone to fall against the euro, we expect the currency to bounce back over the next couple of years, as the country’s terms of... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Green success to meet the realities of Swiss politics The success of environmentalist parties in yesterday’s Federal Elections in Switzerland echoes similar gains elsewhere in Europe in recent months. But given Switzerland’s consensus-based political... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts (and charts) on the auto sector Our best guess is that vehicle production in the euro-zone will stabilise at around its current level over the next year. If so, the sector would subtract 0.2% from GDP this year, but neither add to... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nobel prize money isn’t what it used to be The decades-long downward trend in the Swedish krona means that a Nobel prize in US dollar terms is worth less than half what it was in the early 1990s. With the krona set to fall further by year-end... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account acknowledges divisions in the Council Given how much has been said (and leaked) about the ECB’s 12th September meeting, there was little scope for fresh revelations in today’s account. But the report is consistent with our view that more... 10th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to get no cover from fiscal policy Calls for any fiscal stimulus to support the Swedish economy are likely to fall on deaf ears, so the burden will continue to be entirely on the Riksbank. A combination of a dovish shift by the Bank... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic easing cycle has further to run Having cut its key interest rate by 25bps this morning, we now expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to stay in easing mode over the coming months and to reduce rates to 2.75% by year-end. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to increase corporate bond purchases next year We think that the ECB will increase its monthly bond-buying next year by purchasing more corporate debt. This would lead to a marked pick-up in bond issuance, but only a small increase in investment. 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
