Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will not fear being branded a ‘manipulator’ While much of the market’s focus has been on China, Switzerland appears set to become the first country to meet all three of the US Treasury’s criteria of being a ‘currency manipulator’ later this... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a big fiscal boost from Germany German opinion polls suggest that there is a growing chance that the next federal government, which will be formed after elections due by late 2021, will be a coalition including the Green party... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dovish ECB paves way for lower rates elsewhere The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB should be ready to act in September The market reaction to today’s ECB press conference suggests that President Draghi was not as dovish as some investors had hoped for. But the big picture is that it seems clear that policy loosening... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tiered ECB deposit rate would be a dovish signal If it is introduced (which is far from certain) a tiered deposit rate would reduce the cost of negative interest rates for banks, but it would do so by only a trivial amount. Its main purpose would be... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to cut rates in Q1 2020 While recent market attention has been on the ECB and Fed, the rise in the Swiss franc has ratcheted up the pressure on the SNB. As a result, investors have come around to our view that the Bank will... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Domestic weakness to weigh on the Swedish krona It is becoming harder for the Riksbank to brush aside mounting signs of weakness in domestic demand. We expect it to turn more dovish, and the krona to weaken, over the second half of the year. 22nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro-zone economy turning a corner? The improvement in some of the recent economic data suggests that the risk of an imminent recession is low. But it does not suggest that the economy is about to rebound. We expect growth to remain... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account confirms dovish intentions A lot has happened since the Governing Council’s policy meeting on 6th June, so the account published today has arguably been superseded by events. But it does confirm that even five weeks ago the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Democracy, same old problems New Democracy’s clear victory in Greece’s parliamentary elections yesterday will be welcomed by investors. But it will not be a game changer for the economy, not least because the government will... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bucks the dovish trend The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning came as no surprise, but the fact that it left its (in our view) optimistic forecast for interest rates unchanged... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into euro-zone core inflation The jump in euro-zone core inflation in June seems to have largely reflected temporary factors. More generally, a range of measures of underlying inflation suggest that price pressures remain subdued... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Why ‘yield curve control’ wouldn’t work for the SNB Swiss pension funds and life insurers have been among the losers from negative interest rates, but the SNB is unlikely to follow the Bank of Japan’s example of targeting long-term bond yields to limit... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
