Europe Economics Update Eurogroup agrees on lowest common denominator The Eurogroup’s agreement on €540bn, or 4.5% of GDP, of support for responses to the coronavirus crisis falls a long way short of the large-scale joint fiscal boost which many euro-zone governments... 10th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish recovery to be slow and protracted Economic activity in Spain has collapsed as a result of the measures to contain the coronavirus. And even if the government begins to lift some of the restrictions next week, as it has suggested, the... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB using balance sheet more aggressively than ever The ECB is using its balance sheet aggressively to provide cheap funding to banks and support peripheral government bond markets. But there is no guarantee that banks will maintain their volume of... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus crisis will cause lasting damage to banks Government loan guarantees will help to limit the damage to banks from defaults in the short term. But the banks will inevitably be weakened by the crisis, leaving them with more non-performing loans... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Carnage in the Swiss labour market The fact that almost one-third of the Swiss workforce has reportedly applied for short-time work is a sobering illustration of the scale of the virus-related economic disruption. While the headline... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Latest Italian data show huge falls in activity Activity in some large parts of Italy’s economy – including manufacturing – appears to be down by more than 50%. Even if the lockdown is relaxed in May, we think that GDP will fall by about 10% this... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update GDP to drop by 25% during lockdowns The imposition of strict social distancing controls across the continent means that economic activity in the euro-zone is likely to slump even further than we had assumed two weeks ago. For the... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will short-time work schemes save euro-zone jobs? Euro-zone unemployment will rise sharply in the coming months but short-time working schemes will help to prevent it from skyrocketing. While this will incur significant fiscal costs, the support to... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian economy being clobbered on all fronts The combination of virus-related disruption and a crunch in cash flows for energy firms means that the Norwegian economy is more exposed than most at present. And with oil prices likely to increase... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Italian COVID-19 infections data The number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases in Italy has been on a downward trend, raising hopes that the lockdown is beginning to work. In this Update, we put the numbers in context. 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may be forced to live with a stronger franc While the SNB clearly favours using FX interventions to weaken the franc at present, persistent concerns about the size of its balance sheet would make it reticent to step in on an ever-greater scale... 30th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys under-estimating the slump in GDP The business surveys for March point to declines in activity at least as deep as during the global financial crisis. None of them will be perfect guides to GDP though. If anything, the economy seems... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation set to turn negative The precipitous fall in oil prices and virus-related plunge in demand is likely to push euro-zone inflation to a record low of -1% in the summer. While the risk of deflation becoming entrenched seems... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French statisticians think GDP down 35% Measuring the economic fallout from the coronavirus is fraught with uncertainty, but the French statistics office estimates that economic activity is currently running a whopping 35% below normal. If... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Joint fiscal support would aid EZ economic recovery Euro-zone policymakers’ plan to offer precautionary credit lines to some governments is a step in the right direction, but it is too small and not the best tool for the job. It stops well short of... 26th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ESM help welcome but more will be needed It now seems likely that euro-zone policymakers will exploit the European Stability Mechanism’s lending capacity to offer financial help to all member states to tackle the hit from the coronavirus... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
