Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP to contract in Q2 and perhaps beyond Following the surge in Covid-19 cases over the past week, we are cutting our forecast for euro-zone economic growth to 0.5% for the year, from 0.7% previously, due to a sharp drop in household... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Potential loss of sports income is no issue for the SNB The possibility of the Olympics and/or the European Football Championships being cancelled as a result of the coronavirus poses downside risks to headline Swiss GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, this... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising risk to the Swiss economy from coronavirus The outsized importance of cross-border commuters to the Swiss economy means that it is particularly vulnerable to any disruption to flows of people within Europe as a result of the coronavirus... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s economy to slow but remain a bright spot Portugal’s economy has been a relative bright spot in the euro-zone in recent years and we think it will fare better than average again this year. Nonetheless, quarterly GDP growth looks set to slow... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian coronavirus cases increase downside risks So far, the knock-on effects from the downturn in China on the euro-zone economy have been negligible. However, the jump in confirmed cases in Italy this weekend adds another channel through which the... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s more positive outlook won’t have lasted long The account of the ECB’s January meeting suggests that the ECB was becoming a little more positive on the economic outlook. But weak data and the spread of the coronavirus since then will have surely... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on Irish reunification The recent election result in Ireland has made the prospect of reunification slightly less remote. In this Update, we answer four political questions and four economic questions about what it might... 17th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish government too optimistic on 2020 growth Spain’s new government has downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and eased up on the planned pace of budget deficit reduction. But we think that GDP growth this year will be even slower than it... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s election throws up longer-term risks Ireland’ general election result does not change our view on the near-term outlook for the economy, which should maintain a decent pace this year and next. But it does raise questions about the longer... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of coronavirus small but increasing Provided that the coronavirus is brought under control reasonably soon, the consequences for the euro-zone economy should be quite small. Nonetheless, with growth likely to be very sluggish in any... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
