Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank sets a floor at zero This morning’s 25bp rate cut by the Norges Bank, to a fresh record low of zero, took the consensus by surprise, but was in line with our forecast. That said, the Bank gave a strong signal that it has... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Covid-19 pulls rug from under Greek recovery Just as the Greek economy was getting back on its feet the coronavirus pulled the rug from under it. And while the government’s generous fiscal support will cushion the blow, it also raises questions... 5th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro The German constitutional court ruling today will not bring the ECB’s asset purchase programme to a sudden end. But it highlights that a successful legal challenge to the its policies in the future... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB dragging feet over sovereign support The ECB’s failure to step up its asset purchase programmes at today’s monetary policy meeting will leave investors with nagging doubts about its commitment to underwrite government borrowing during... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How quickly will euro-zone activity return to normal? Although restrictions are set to be lifted in the coming weeks, economic activity in the euro-zone will remain significantly below pre-virus levels for a long period. Consumers are likely to be wary... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions (and eight charts) about Italy There is some room for cautious optimism on Italy, at least for the near-term. Daily new infections are falling, the government has begun to exit its lockdown, and bond spreads are narrowing. With... 28th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals rate cut in the pipeline This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate and crisis-related policy settings unchanged did not come as a big surprise. Nonetheless, it kept the door open for a rate cut, and we... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s light-touch lockdown far from pain-free Despite imposing less draconian measures than elsewhere, the economic impact of Sweden’s ‘lockdown’ is not far short of that in France, for example. Accordingly, Sweden’s experience pours cold water... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will need to increase its bond purchases again The ECB’s record pace of asset purchases is proving insufficient to bring bond spreads down. We think that it will need to step up the pace of purchases further, as well as expand the overall size of... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Divided politicians to leave ball in ECB’s court Proposals for a major, joint fiscal initiative are under discussion again ahead of tomorrow’s EU leaders’ meeting. But the gulf between those in favour and against looks too large to bridge. As a... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank of France floats a version of helicopter money The Bank of France floated the idea recently that the ECB could use “helicopter money” to channel funds to companies after the worst of the current crisis has abated. While this idea has some... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup agrees on lowest common denominator The Eurogroup’s agreement on €540bn, or 4.5% of GDP, of support for responses to the coronavirus crisis falls a long way short of the large-scale joint fiscal boost which many euro-zone governments... 10th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish recovery to be slow and protracted Economic activity in Spain has collapsed as a result of the measures to contain the coronavirus. And even if the government begins to lift some of the restrictions next week, as it has suggested, the... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB using balance sheet more aggressively than ever The ECB is using its balance sheet aggressively to provide cheap funding to banks and support peripheral government bond markets. But there is no guarantee that banks will maintain their volume of... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus crisis will cause lasting damage to banks Government loan guarantees will help to limit the damage to banks from defaults in the short term. But the banks will inevitably be weakened by the crisis, leaving them with more non-performing loans... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Carnage in the Swiss labour market The fact that almost one-third of the Swiss workforce has reportedly applied for short-time work is a sobering illustration of the scale of the virus-related economic disruption. While the headline... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
