Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden sidestepping a second wave Sweden has so far avoided a second wave of virus cases and the prospect of it sticking to its light-touch approach, rather than tightening restrictions in line with much of Europe, means that the risk... 22nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inventories point to little inflationary pressure In contrast to the US where falling inventories may start to push up prices, euro-zone firms’ inventories suggest that near-term price pressures are weak. 16th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish property prices set to fall back, not tumble The weak economic outlook has put the spotlight back on Spain’s property market. House price inflation was already slowing prior to the virus. But a big collapse in prices seems unlikely given that... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite ECB, we see upside risks to our euro forecast Despite its recent rally, the euro is not particularly strong in our view, and we think that it could well rise further over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest, we are sending... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde dashes hopes of early addition to stimulus While no policy change was expected today, President Lagarde used the press conference to convey a slightly less gloomy message about the economy. She also dampened expectations for an early increase... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably not too worried about the euro While the euro’s recent appreciation has generated a lot of attention, it is in fact close to its historical average by most measures. So while ECB policymakers may note at today’s press conference... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Measuring public sector output in the pandemic National statistics offices in the euro-zone have taken different approaches to estimating public sector services output during the lockdowns this year. This means that the extent of the falls in GDP... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market not finished shedding jobs yet Employment rose in Italy for the first time in five months in August, but this is unlikely to be the start of a trend. With the short-time work scheme becoming less generous and then expiring at the... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead? The Fed’s switch to an average inflation targeting regime and revised interpretation of its full employment goal are a response to challenges which are common to many economies, including the euro... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has... 27th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordics top the class with their virus responses While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery in France likely to outpace Spain and Italy France’s virus-related slump in the first half of 2020 rivalled the big falls in GDP in Italy and Spain. But its recovery should be stronger because working from home is more common, the economy is... 24th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions (and answers) about Italy We think that economic activity in Italy is still nearly 10% below its pre-crisis level. Even without a second wave, the economy will remain weak and the budget deficit wide for several years... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key interest rates on hold at zero was never really in doubt. We still think it more likely than not that the Bank will leave rates on hold... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
