Europe Economics Update How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP? The ECB looks set to announce an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme in December and to extend the time for which it pledges to make net purchases and reinvestments. 25th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB “recalibrate” TLTROs? At its December meeting, the ECB is very likely to announce additional TLTRO operations and it may well make their terms even more favourable for banks. In this Update, we review the ways that the ECB... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much would a vaccine boost Spanish tourism? A widespread rollout of an effective vaccine next year should allow a fairly swift return to normality for Spain’s hard-hit tourism sector and would transform the short-term economic outlook. We... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Vaccines pave way to lifting of restrictions in Q2 2021 There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which... 17th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Timely data add to evidence of Q4 contraction Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde points to PEPP and TLTRO as key policy tools In her opening remarks to today’s ECB Forum on Central Banking, President Christine Lagarde gave a clear message that encouraging news about a vaccine would not stop the Bank from loosening policy in... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Six key questions about the Danish mink outbreak The news that mutated versions of SARS-CoV-2 have been transmitted from minks to humans in Denmark has raised fears that the goalposts for a vaccine may have already shifted. This Update answers six... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Six key questions about the Danish mink outbreak The news that mutated versions of SARS-CoV-2 have been transmitted from minks to humans in Denmark has raised fears that the goalposts for a vaccine may have already shifted. This Update answers six... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update High COVID-19 cases point to long-lasting restrictions While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How would a vaccine affect the economy? If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian economy to contract in Q4 Italy’s new tiered COVID-19 restrictions are likely to cause GDP to fall by about 2.5% q/q in Q4, and there is a risk that government is forced into a more severe national lockdown. That said, the... 9th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Smaller hit to French GDP from Lockdown 2.0 A survey of firms from France’s central bank and high frequency mobility for last week suggest that the new national lockdown will have a smaller impact on France’s GDP than the first, perhaps of... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero As expected, the Norges Bank did not set off any fireworks this morning, and the decision to leave its key interest rate on hold at zero was never in doubt. The economy is likely to prove... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Recoveries set to shift into reverse While Switzerland has not yet followed France and Germany in announcing a new national lockdown, we now expect GDP to contract in Q4, broadly in line with the euro-zone. Meanwhile, although the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdowns to keep inflation low The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
