Europe Economics Update Lagarde dashes hopes of early addition to stimulus While no policy change was expected today, President Lagarde used the press conference to convey a slightly less gloomy message about the economy. She also dampened expectations for an early increase... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably not too worried about the euro While the euro’s recent appreciation has generated a lot of attention, it is in fact close to its historical average by most measures. So while ECB policymakers may note at today’s press conference... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Measuring public sector output in the pandemic National statistics offices in the euro-zone have taken different approaches to estimating public sector services output during the lockdowns this year. This means that the extent of the falls in GDP... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian labour market not finished shedding jobs yet Employment rose in Italy for the first time in five months in August, but this is unlikely to be the start of a trend. With the short-time work scheme becoming less generous and then expiring at the... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead? The Fed’s switch to an average inflation targeting regime and revised interpretation of its full employment goal are a response to challenges which are common to many economies, including the euro... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has... 27th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordics top the class with their virus responses While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the... 26th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery in France likely to outpace Spain and Italy France’s virus-related slump in the first half of 2020 rivalled the big falls in GDP in Italy and Spain. But its recovery should be stronger because working from home is more common, the economy is... 24th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions (and answers) about Italy We think that economic activity in Italy is still nearly 10% below its pre-crisis level. Even without a second wave, the economy will remain weak and the budget deficit wide for several years... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key interest rates on hold at zero was never really in doubt. We still think it more likely than not that the Bank will leave rates on hold... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave likely to be a drag rather than a disaster Virus numbers have risen sharply in the past month, but the second wave has different characteristics from the first. It is concentrated in younger people, so hospitals are not being put under such... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Mounting cost of ST work puts governments in a bind Short-time working has been widely used during the pandemic to stop unemployment soaring. But even with financial help from Brussels, the mounting costs will force the more fiscally constrained... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus restrictions weigh on Portugal’s recovery The re-imposition of some restrictions in late-June is weighing heavily on Portugal’s tourism sector. Along with its unfavourable labour market structure and fragile banking system, this will hold... 3rd August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Decline in tourism to weigh on southern economies A combination of official travel restrictions and caution from holidaymakers is likely to hit Spain, Greece and Portugal particularly hard. Germany should get off lightly thanks to its comparatively... 30th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in cases a further blow to Spain’s weak recovery Spain’s economic recovery was already set to be one of the weakest in the euro-zone but the resurgence in virus cases over the past week and subsequent re-imposition of restrictions deals a fresh blow... 29th July 2020 · 4 mins read
