Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will rise this year, but remain very low Euro-zone core inflation is likely to rise this year as the temporary VAT cut in Germany expires and last year’s sharp falls in holiday and clothing prices are reversed. However, the inflation rate... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The lockdowns implemented at the end of last year did not lead to another surge in bank lending, probably because they were less strict and more focused on limiting social activity. But if lockdowns... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus poses downside risk to Q1 forecast The virus data for the holiday period in the euro-zone are not as alarming as those for the UK, but they will force governments to extend and intensify restrictions in the coming weeks. As a result... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out 22nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the prospects for the EU’s vaccine roll-out Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However... 22nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank plotting (gradual) path back to normality As was widely expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at zero this morning. However, it brought forward the projected start of rate hikes and signalled that it will retighten... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to stick to course, despite ‘manipulator’ label This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Looking ahead, the SNB will brush off being branded a ‘currency... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB extends implicit yield curve control The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the vaccine will affect Greece’s economy The recent tightening in coronavirus restrictions means that Greece’s recovery will shift into reverse in Q4 and the start of 2021 is also likely to be weak. However, the rollout of a vaccine by mid... 9th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Factoring in a vaccine to our forecasts Following the run of positive news on the vaccine front, we now expect Switzerland and the Nordic economies to regain pre-virus levels in late 2021. Nonetheless, policymakers will be in no rush to... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine We now assume that vaccines will be rolled out in the euro-zone next year and that most of the restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, demand rebounds fairly rapidly and... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
