Europe Economics Update Should the ECB write off government debt? A debt write-off would wipe out much of the recent increase in public debt burdens and give the ECB more scope to expand its balance sheet in the future. But the fiscal benefits for euro-zone... 9th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about a Draghi-led government The markets have reacted well to the news that Mario Draghi has been tasked with forming a new government. It is hard to think of a better candidate to lead Italy through a crisis, but we doubt that... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Summer tourist season at risk The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and euro-zone authorities’ slow progress with vaccinations, mean that there is a growing risk of another summer tourist season being lost. That would put a huge... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise Germany’s state-level data show that the sharp increase in inflation in January resulted from higher energy prices and delays to winter sales, as well as changes to the weights of the HICP basket... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains the strength of inflation in January? January’s surprisingly large increases in inflation in Germany and Spain were due to a range of factors, including a rise in VAT, higher energy and holiday prices, and methodological changes. As a... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in virus cases a threat to Spain’s recovery The number of new Covid-19 cases is surging once again in Spain and, with tougher measures looking inevitable, this will weigh heavily on economic activity in Q1. Things should improve later in the... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not likely to accept tighter policy While yesterday’s ECB policy statement and press conference left many investors with the impression the Bank may be willing to tolerate higher peripheral bond yields, we doubt that this is the case... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several months As expected, the ECB left its policy settings unchanged today and, given the flexibility of its current policy of implicit yield curve control, will probably make no changes until the second half of... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tighter Policy in Norway still a long way off As expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning and reiterated that it “will most likely remain at today’s level for some time ahead”. This... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s slow vaccine rollout won’t prevent recovery France’s tight restrictions are set to be in place for at least another month or two, so GDP will not recover strongly during Q1. However, although the slow start to the vaccine rollout poses a... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our vaccine rollout assumptions Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets... 13th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will households spend what they have saved? If euro-zone households spent all of their forced savings from last year, it could provide a boost to GDP growth in 2021 of as much as 3%. In practice, we doubt that it will be anything like that... 12th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Nordic currencies could rise further in 2021 We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year... 7th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Looking towards the vaccine endgame While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here), and... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
