Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Recoveries set to shift into reverse While Switzerland has not yet followed France and Germany in announcing a new national lockdown, we now expect GDP to contract in Q4, broadly in line with the euro-zone. Meanwhile, although the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdowns to keep inflation low The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of... 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update We doubt the SEK will remain a G10 top performer We think that the Swedish krona will appreciate a little further against the euro and the dollar in 2021, but doubt that it will remain one of the best-performing G10 currencies, as it has been this... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB makes big promises for December The ECB left its policy settings unchanged at today’s meeting, but explicitly stated that it would “recalibrate” them in December. We think this will include an increase in the size and duration of... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focused on how, rather than if, ECB loosens again We think that Swiss policymakers would be prepared to match any small interest rate cut by the ECB, albeit reluctantly. However, if policymakers in the euro-zone opt to ease policy in other ways, as... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New virus restrictions to stop EZ recovery in its tracks We think that the second wave of COVID-19 infections and new containment measures will cause the euro-zone economy to stagnate over the next six months or so. In quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP would... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave forcing more restrictions With the virus spreading rapidly, governments are ramping up their containment measures. The new restrictions will be more targeted, regional and time-specific than in the first wave, but they are... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market slack to rise further Data published by Eurostat yesterday underline that there was a large increase in labour market slack. Looking ahead, it is likely to continue to rise sharply. 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian industrial data not as good as they look August’s strong increase in industrial production in Italy is not as good as it first appears. The timelier surveys point to annual declines in output, and rising virus numbers present a growing... 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting suggests that policymakers were in no hurry to increase the size of the PEPP. There has been more disappointing news on the economy since then... 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies The further slowdowns in monthly GDP growth in Norway and Sweden in August support our view that it will take a long time for output to recover to pre-crisis trend levels anywhere in Europe. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Motor vehicles unlikely to drive euro-zone inflation We think car makers in the euro-zone will be able to keep pace with demand for new vehicles this year, despite having had to introduce social distancing measures to their production processes... 7th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Risk of US Treasury backlash unlikely to deter SNB Although the SNB meets the US Treasury’s criteria for a “currency manipulator”, we doubt this would deter it from intervening further in the foreign exchange market if required to keep the franc... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
