Europe Economics Update Low inflation expectations add to ECB worries While it is not clear that inflation expectations are less well anchored that in the past, they are at a low level. With the actual inflation rate falling, this reinforces the case for further ECB... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde points to dovish strategy conclusions President Lagarde’s speech today suggests that she will argue for a higher, symmetric inflation target and a move towards a form of average inflation targeting as part of the ECB’s strategy review... 30th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brighter outlook for the Norwegian krone next year Although the Norwegian krone has been the worst performing G10 currency so far in 2020, we expect it to make up some lost ground in 2021 even if it falls a bit more in the near term. 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economic outlook darkening The resurgence of COVID-19 in the euro-zone has hit Spain the hardest and hospital capacity there is under strain, most notably in Madrid. Restrictions have taken a toll on activity and stricter ones... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bankruptcy phoney war coming to an end Having instructed many firms to cease trading during the lockdowns, governments understandably pulled out all the stops to prevent them from going under. However, we expect this support to be... 28th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone avoid a labour market “cliff edge”? Short-time work schemes are not being used as much as they were in the spring, but they still account for about 5% of the labour force. So as euro-zone governments reduce support for jobs (in the way... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The surge in lending growth during and immediately after lockdowns is well and truly over. But with the authorities tightening virus containment measures again and signs that the economic recovery is... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to cut interest rates on TLTROs again Some policymakers at the ECB have hinted recently that further policy loosening could be on the way. There is little to be gained from announcing an expansion to QE at this stage, but we wouldn’t be... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB & Norges Bank cook up no change, two ways The fact that policymakers at the SNB and the Norges Bank left policy settings unchanged this morning came as no surprise. Both banks are likely to leave policy unchanged throughout our forecast... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Second wave a growing threat to the recovery The number of confirmed virus cases in the euro-zone has continued to increase rapidly in recent weeks and poses a growing threat to the economic recovery. Some countries, including Italy and Germany... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Sweden sidestepping a second wave Sweden has so far avoided a second wave of virus cases and the prospect of it sticking to its light-touch approach, rather than tightening restrictions in line with much of Europe, means that the risk... 22nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden sidestepping a second wave Sweden has so far avoided a second wave of virus cases and the prospect of it sticking to its light-touch approach, rather than tightening restrictions in line with much of Europe, means that the risk... 22nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inventories point to little inflationary pressure In contrast to the US where falling inventories may start to push up prices, euro-zone firms’ inventories suggest that near-term price pressures are weak. 16th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish property prices set to fall back, not tumble The weak economic outlook has put the spotlight back on Spain’s property market. House price inflation was already slowing prior to the virus. But a big collapse in prices seems unlikely given that... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite ECB, we see upside risks to our euro forecast Despite its recent rally, the euro is not particularly strong in our view, and we think that it could well rise further over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest, we are sending... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
