Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is... 9th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB brings its tightening cycle to an end The Czech National Bank became the first major EM central bank to end its tightening cycle after it left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today. The communications were not as dovish as we had... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain Western sanctions have caused activity in certain sectors of Russia’s economy to collapse, but activity has held up reasonably well in key areas such as oil production and less import-dependent... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak leu not a silver bullet for Romania’s CA deficit Romania’s current account deficit is likely to rise to almost 9% of GDP this year. While a weaker currency would help to reduce this shortfall, structural reforms are needed to boost competitiveness... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: policy tightening now a severe headwind The 200bp increase in the base rate (to 9.75%) by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) today has resulted in the most aggressive amount of monetary tightening in decades. With fiscal policy tightening too and... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE current accounts now in worrying territory Surging global commodity prices have hit Central and Eastern European economies like a tsunami in recent months, causing a severe terms of trade shock and current account deficits to blow out. These... 6th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel joins the 50bp rate hike club The Bank of Israel stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 50bp interest rate hike, to 1.25%, as it dropped its commitment to “gradual” interest rate hikes. This suggests that similar moves may... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE so far Ukrainian refugees have boosted labour forces and consumer spending across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since the outbreak of the war, but this could prove short-lived if the conflict remains... 30th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB sends a strong message with monster rate hike Hungary’s central bank (MNB) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a much larger-than-expected 185bp increase in its base rate, to 7.75%, and the hawkish communications underline the view that... 28th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional... 27th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: knock knock, anybody there? High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00%... 23rd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation broadening out Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon Israel’s labour market has tightened significantly in recent months and while there is so far little sign of a burst of wage pressure coming through, this is likely to be in the pipeline and feed... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
