Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI slows the pace of tightening as economy softens The Bank of Israel slowed down the pace of tightening today with a 50bp rate hike, to 3.25%, as it emphasised the tightening delivered so far and the early signs that economic activity is slowing. We... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s current account risks continue to mount Romania’s current account deficit, which is among the largest in the EM world, has continued to widen this year and now exceeds 9% of GDP. It is reassuring that much of the deficit is currently being... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s external vulnerabilities in the spotlight The surge in energy prices this year has led to a sharp widening in Hungary’s current account deficit and increased its dependence on foreign capital inflows. While the central bank seems to have put... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s recovery entering a more challenging phase Israel’s economy has been one of the fastest growing globally since the pandemic but there are a number of headwinds that will weigh on activity over the coming quarters. We expect a period of below... 2nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB ends rate hiking cycle, but risks remain After raising its base rate by a larger-than-expected 125bp, to 13.00%, Hungary’s central bank (MNB) announced today that it has now ended its rate hiking cycle and we now forecast the base rate to be... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy crisis support won’t avert recessions across CEE Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s central bank brings hiking cycle to an end The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slowed down the pace of its tightening cycle again today with a 25bp rate hike to 6.75%. There was no new guidance in the communications in terms of the central bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening with a 75bp hike The Bank of Israel stepped up its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 2.00%, today as it became more concerned about the strength of inflation. Our previously-hawkish view for interest... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
