Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s strong growth unlikely to be sustained Romania's economy has outperformed its peers in Central and Eastern Europe over the past year, but domestic demand looks unsustainably strong and a period of weaker growth will be needed to reduce the... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The Turkish lira can’t defy gravity forever Although the Turkish lira is at its weakest ever level against the US dollar, it would have fallen far further by now were it not for intervention by policymakers. We anticipate that the currency will... 13th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: nearing the end of the tightening cycle Israel’s central bank raised its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 4.50%, as expected today and its communications sounded slightly less hawkish than at its previous meeting. Inflation pressures are... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks in better shape, but external risks still high Turkey’s banking sector has been one of the weak links in the EM world in recent years due to its very high external debt burden. The good news is that banks have paid down these external debts and... 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech growth to disappoint as eurozone recession hits The very high household saving rate in Czechia and the sharp fall in inflation we expect there this year means there is scope for consumer spending to recover over the coming quarters. But we think... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB getting close to phasing out its stabilisation tools Hungary’s central bank (MNB) reiterated the message that it’s unlikely to cut its base rate anytime soon, when it left that rate on hold again today (at 13.00%). That said, the MNB offered some signs... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage problem Last week’s European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion on Poland’s Swiss franc mortgage dispute dealt yet another blow to Poland’s banking sector and will expose those banks with large FX loan portfolios... 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Europe metals supply battered, but not entirely broken The sharp fall in European electricity prices sets the stage for a recovery in metals output across the region. As power prices are still historically high and unlikely to fall that much further... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s public finances under increasing strain Russia’s budget deficit has widened sharply in recent months and is likely to remain under pressure amid lower oil prices and rising military spending. The government is unlikely to experience severe... 21st February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI sticks to aggressive tightening, cycle still not over The Bank of Israel (BoI) hiked interest rates by another 50bp, to 4.25%, today and while it continued to point to signs of slower growth, it sounded more concerned about the strength of inflation than... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
