Emerging Europe Economics Update Wage pressures will take time to alleviate in CEE Signs of softening labour markets across Central and Eastern Europe support our view that intense wage pressures in the region will ease in the coming months. Even so, we still think that wage growth... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s earthquakes The recent earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria are a human tragedy and foremost in everyone’s minds. Nonetheless, the financial markets will also need to bear in mind the economic cost and, to the... 7th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB may pivot soon The hawkish tone struck by the Czech National Bank (CNB) as it left its policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that rates will be cut around the middle of... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic risks of Israel’s new government Concerns over democratic backsliding and an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict associated with Israel’s new far-right government won’t necessarily mean that foreign investment into Israel... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three bits of good news for the CEE inflation outlook Moderating core price pressures, the continued fall in inflation expectations and the sharp decline in wholesale natural gas prices mean we think inflation in Central and Eastern Europe will fall a... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong FDI inflows likely to continue in CEE The surge in FDI inflows to a 15-year high in Central and Eastern Europe last year will partly unwind this year given the weaker global macro backdrop. But we think that a large part of the increase... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Insights from Euromoney’s CEE conference Europe’s energy crisis, sky-high rates of inflation and Ukraine’s reconstruction were among the biggest topics of conversation at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European forum in Vienna this week... 12th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: shrinking CA surplus to erode sanctions resilience A widening of Russia’s budget deficit next year to 2.5% of GDP will increase pressure on the government to keep a firm grip on non-military spending. But it should be able to finance the shortfall... 14th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Unpacking the G7 oil price cap ahead of 5th December There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia entering a new era with euro adoption Croatia’s adoption of the euro on 1st January 2023 is likely to bring only small benefits to the economy given how widely used the euro already is in the country. Even so, we think prospects for... 30th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resilience in CEE industry unlikely to last Industry across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has held up better than might have been expected this year given the extent of the energy price shock. While output in energy-intensive industry has... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI slows the pace of tightening as economy softens The Bank of Israel slowed down the pace of tightening today with a 50bp rate hike, to 3.25%, as it emphasised the tightening delivered so far and the early signs that economic activity is slowing. We... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s current account risks continue to mount Romania’s current account deficit, which is among the largest in the EM world, has continued to widen this year and now exceeds 9% of GDP. It is reassuring that much of the deficit is currently being... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
