Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse Russia has suspended the publication of monthly trade data, but figures from its trading partners show that import values plunged 45% m/m in March while exports rose slightly amid high commodity... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet Industrial production in Central Europe performed much better than expected in March given the sharp fall in German production. We still think industry will weaken in Q2 as supply chain disruptions... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB steps up tightening, but NBP opts for a smaller hike Central banks in Czechia and Poland caught investors by surprise today as the Czech central bank (CNB) unexpectedly re-accelerated the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp hike while Poland’s... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland well prepared for life without Russian gas Poland’s government has shown no signs of meeting President Putin’s demand to get gas flows restored, but we think the economy is relatively well placed to deal with a loss of Russian supplies. As... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slashes rates and shifts its focus Russia’s central bank (CBR) cut its policy rate by another 300bp to 14.0% today and the communications suggest that the CBR is now more focused on boosting credit growth than it has been in the past... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s current account deficit is a growing risk Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are likely to cause Turkey’s current account deficit to widen to more than 4% of GDP this year. In the recent past, deficits of this scale have tended to precede... 25th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: interest rate lift-off with a 25bp hike The Bank of Israel kick-started its tightening cycle today with a 25bp interest rate hike to 0.35% and we think it will deliver further hikes at its upcoming meetings, taking rates to around 2.00% in... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early evidence of a hard hit to Russia’s economy Timely indicators suggest that Russian manufacturing contracted by around 20% y/y in March and that consumer spending fell by 10% y/y at the start of April. Russia’s economic downturn looks set to... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up its fight against inflation The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly delivered its largest interest rate hike in 22 years today (100bp, to 4.50%) to get on top of the deteriorating inflation outlook and we think there’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB slows tightening, but more on the horizon The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the third consecutive month today with a 50bp rate hike to 5.00%, but hawkish communications after the meeting suggest that... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s election: what’s at stake? Fidesz is looking the most likely to retain power in Hungary’s election this weekend, which will pave the way for four more years of tensions with the EU over the rule of law and raise the likelihood... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read