Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation broadening out Central and Eastern European economies are experiencing their worst bout of inflation since the late-1990s as surging food and energy prices have added to strong core price pressures across a broad... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on capital controls in Turkey The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital... 16th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon Israel’s labour market has tightened significantly in recent months and while there is so far little sign of a burst of wage pressure coming through, this is likely to be in the pipeline and feed... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR lowers interest rates back to pre-war levels The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a 150bp interest rate cut to 9.50% today as its focus continued to shift away from inflation risks towards supporting the economy. We think further reductions... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey, the lira and previous currency crises The Turkish lira has continued to slide and the current backdrop is eerily similar to that which preceded previous currency crises. Sharp and disorderly falls in the lira over the coming weeks are now... 8th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation at 70%, lira tumbling – but still CBRT holds Despite the backdrop of inflation at 70% and the lira falling by falling by 10% against the dollar this month, Turkey’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 14.00% today. So long as President... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default In this Update, we answer a number of key questions on Russia’s public finances, including the likelihood of a sovereign default, the impact of higher energy prices and the collapse of the economy on... 23rd May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse Russia has suspended the publication of monthly trade data, but figures from its trading partners show that import values plunged 45% m/m in March while exports rose slightly amid high commodity... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet Industrial production in Central Europe performed much better than expected in March given the sharp fall in German production. We still think industry will weaken in Q2 as supply chain disruptions... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB steps up tightening, but NBP opts for a smaller hike Central banks in Czechia and Poland caught investors by surprise today as the Czech central bank (CNB) unexpectedly re-accelerated the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp hike while Poland’s... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland well prepared for life without Russian gas Poland’s government has shown no signs of meeting President Putin’s demand to get gas flows restored, but we think the economy is relatively well placed to deal with a loss of Russian supplies. As... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
