Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps interest rates on hold, but hikes still on the cards The Russian central bank left interest rates unchanged today, having raised rates by 250bps over the firstsix months of the year. But with inflation set to rise further over the coming months and... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone more to blame for Q2 slowdown than Ukraine The slowdown in Central and South Eastern Europe in the second quarter has raised concerns about the region’s exposure to the crisis in Ukraine. In this Watch, we dig deeper into the GDP data to see... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy slows sharply on weak domestic demand Today’s weaker-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data reinforce the point that interest rate hikes earlier in the year are continuing to weigh on domestic demand. The poor figures are likely to result in... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC signals rate cuts The Polish MPC made it pretty clear at today’s post-meeting press conference that subdued growth and extremely low inflation mean that interest rates will be lowered over the coming months. For now... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update August’s PMIs suggest growth in Central Europe slowed further Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggests that the recent slowdown in the Turkish economy may have bottomed out but it provides yet further evidence of weakening growth in Central Europe. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Renewed escalation in Ukraine hits region’s financial markets Claims by Ukraine’s government that Russia has deployed troops in the east of the country have led to sharp falls in financial markets across Emerging Europe today. Some of the sharpest falls have... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latin America inflation woes deepen Although inflation at the aggregate EM level remains fairly benign, there are big differences between the main EM regions. Inflation is fairly low in most of Emerging Asia, but is high and rising in... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers too sanguine on external vulnerabilities The decision by Turkey’s central bank to cut its overnight lending rate, which forms the upper bound of the corridor in which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, suggests that it is becoming less... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in oil prices underscores Russia’s vulnerabilities The fall in oil prices over the past month poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices is unlikely to have a major bearing on the outlook for the rest of this year –... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s private debt a bigger risk than its public debt There are rising concerns about the sustainability of Ukraine’s public debt and the possibility that the government may be forced to default. We agree that Ukraine’s public finances are in a mess... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: still struggling at the start of Q3 July’s activity data will do little to ease concerns about the outlook for Russia’s economy. Industrial production accelerated a little and agricultural production strengthened on the back of this... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data show recovery in CEE losing momentum Softer growth across much of Central and Eastern Europe in Q2 is likely to be attributed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine but, while this may have weighed on business confidence in some... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish slowdown to trigger further pressure for rate cuts Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s election victory and intrigue about the composition of the government have dominated the headlines in Turkey. But the fact that the economy has slowed sharply over the past few... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a better Q2, but Q3 could bring further weakness After a torrid Q1, the Russian economy performed a little better in Q2. Although growth slowed a touch in annual terms, output appears to have grown over the quarter. Nonetheless, the respite is... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan presidency means more of the same for Turkey’s economy Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that his victory in yesterday’s presidential election marked a ‘new era’ for Turkey. But for the economy it is likely to mean more of the same. The economic imbalances... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to show Central Europe’s recovery losing steam The raft of second quarter GDP data due to be published next week is likely to show that the recovery in Central and South Eastern Europe lost steam. Worryingly, having made a bright start to Q2... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
