Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off eases, while Ukraine’s bonds slump A combination of interest rate hikes, a move towards a fully floating ruble and steps to limit the provision of ruble liquidity appear to have arrested the slump in Russia’s currency. Elsewhere, the... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy in Hungary to stay loose The National Bank of Hungary left interest rates unchanged today and, in spite of negative inflation, the MPC appears to be in no mood to resume policy easing. But equally, there will be little... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC reiterates concerns about inflation The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, once again suggested that the Council remains concerned about the poor inflation outlook. This... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How implausible is a Russian government debt default? The recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the drop in the ruble, has revived memories of 1998 in Russia, when similar developments culminated in a government debt default. The state of Russia’s... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP data to show widespread weakness in the region The raft of preliminary Q3 GDP data due to be published this month is likely to be disappointing, showing a slowdown in growth across the region. While domestic demand seems to have held up reasonably... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why a weaker ruble spells trouble for Russia’s banks There are relatively few parallels between the 1998 ruble crisis and the present crisis, but one point in common is that some of the greatest vulnerabilities to a weaker currency lie in the banking... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to be forced into further rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble is likely to force the Central Bank of Russia into making a one-off intervention in the currency market, permitted under its new exchange rate policy, rather more... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish central bank governor shifts emphasis to growth Following the surprise decision to leave interest rates on hold today, when most had expected a 25bp cut, Governor Belka didn’t close the door on further easing. But he did shift the emphasis onto... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s MPC dovish on inflation outlook Having cut its policy interest rate by 25bp to 2.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary policy at the post-meeting press conference. Nonetheless... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis spurs central bank response Russia’s central bank had to deliver two things at today’s Board meeting in order to stem the slide in the ruble: an aggressive hike in interest rates and an immediate overhaul of the current exchange... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis pushes central bank towards heavy FX intervention The Russian ruble has rallied by around 3% against the dollar today seemingly as a result of central bank intervention on the foreign exchange market 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price slump raises deflation danger The sharp fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will keep inflation across Central and South Eastern Europe extremely weak and could push several economies deeper into deflation... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: encouraging election doesn’t end political crisis The victory of pro-Western, reformist parties in yesterday’s election was perhaps the best that could have been hoped for. But with the economy in freefall and the conflict in the east of the country... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
