Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: five key questions It looks all but inevitable that Ukraine will need to restructure its public debts, but there’s a huge amount of uncertainty about what the restructuring might look like. To shed some light, in this... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkish central bank independence matters The Turkish government’s attacks on the central bank (CBRT) have become increasingly aggressive over the past month, raising fears about the independence of monetary policy and triggering a sharp sell... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region’s banks in better shape to weather an external shock The provisional approval of the extension of the Greek bailout has calmed the markets, but the bigger picture is that the road ahead is still long and bumpy. This means that a Greek exit from the euro... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s central bank hikes rates to stem hryvnia crisis The hike in Ukraine’s discount rate by 10.5% to 30% today is a desperate attempt by the National Bank to regain control of the currency, having botched its attempt to tighten capital controls over the... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rally largely explained by oil rebound The ruble has sold off today but this follows strong gains in recent weeks that made it the best performing EM currency in February. There are several factors that could explain the rebound in the... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates but lira concerns limit room for further easing Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) justified today’s decision to lower interest rates on the grounds that inflation has fallen back, but the reality is that it remains under intense pressure from the... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets brush off concerns over Greece Financial markets in Emerging Europe have brushed off renewed concerns over Greece – indeed, equity markets in most countries have rallied over the course of this month and currencies have generally... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF package brings Ukraine back from the brink The scale of the package of financing for Ukraine announced this morning should be adequate to cover financing needs for a couple of years and will remove an element of uncertainty surrounding the... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the latest currency moves in Central Europe After a year of stability, Central Europe’s currency markets sprung back to life over the past month as the ECB unveiled a QE programme and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to scrap its exchange... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey caught in currency crosswinds The fall in the Turkish lira against the US dollar over the past couple of weeks has raised fresh concerns about the country’s relatively high burden of dollar-denominated debt. But at the same time... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cut coming in March Having left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.0% earlier today, the Polish MPC pretty much confirmed at the post-meeting press conference that a rate cut is on the way in March. For now, we... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
