Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s import ban likely to backfire The economic impact of Russia’s decision to ban imports of some foodstuffs from the EU, the US and other western countries is extremely uncertain, but it seems likely that the biggest loser will be... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three scenarios for Russia’s economy The deepening political crisis between Russia and the US/Europe means that the uncertainties attached to economic forecasts are even greater than usual. In these circumstances it makes more sense to... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC flags up prospect of further rate cuts Governor Isarescu opened the door to further interest rate cuts in Romania at today’s post-MPC meeting press conference. Much will depend on inflation data for July and August, due to be released... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to a soft start to Q3 July’s manufacturing PMIs from Emerging Europe were, in aggregate, a little better than June’s figures. But they were still weaker than their average over the first half of the year. What’s more, much... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How and where the latest sanctions will hit the Russian economy The latest package of sanctions adopted by the EU and the US against Russia will affect the economy in different ways. In the short-term, restrictions on access to western capital markets for selected... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech National Bank extends FX intervention pledge The Czech MPC struck an even more dovish note at today’s post-meeting press conference. Policymakersextended their pledge to intervene in the FX market to prevent the koruna from appreciating beyond... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off latest standoff with Russia The renewed violence in eastern Ukraine, the imposition of fresh sanctions by the US and the threat of further moves by the EU have weighed on Russian equities. But the recent falls haven’t been as... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Russia rate hike a response to geopolitics not inflation Russia’s central bank justified its surprise decision to hike interest rates this morning on stubbornly high inflation, but it’s pretty clear that this is a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a threat are financial sanctions for Russia? The possibility that the EU might follow in the steps of the US and restrict access to capital markets for some Russian firms, coupled with Moscow’s decision this week to cancel another government... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in agricultural prices to help keep EM inflation muted Inflation across the EM world remains relatively low in aggregate terms, even if it is still worryingly high in a handful of countries. Looking ahead, with global food prices falling, and underlying... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets too complacent on risks to Turkish outlook The recent rally in the Turkish markets appears to have been driven by expectations of continued loose monetary policy in the developed world coupled – dare we say it – with a reasonable amount of... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets may be overplaying Russia’s resilience The muted reaction in Russian markets to the growing likelihood of additional economic and financialsanctions by the EU probably reflects two things. The first is the widespread assumption that Europe... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by more than both we and the consensus expected earlier today, but followed this up with comments that its two-year long easing cycle is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fresh sanctions add headwinds to Russia’s growth outlook June’s activity data have dented hopes of a sustained recovery in the Russian economy. A meaningful turnaround will require a significant rise in investment. But the latest round of sanctions on... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates, but easing cycle looks unsustainable The Turkish central bank continued to loosen monetary conditions today and pressure from the government means that further rate cuts look likely over the coming months. However, given the backdrop of... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
