Emerging Europe Economics Update Who’s been hit hardest by the credit squeeze? On the whole, firms, rather than households, have borne the brunt of the credit squeeze in Emerging Europe. In fact, lending to consumers has already started to pick up in those countries with... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set to lead the region’s recovery Q4 2009 GDP data from Turkey support our view that it will be one of the best performing economies in the region over the next few years. Nonetheless, while growth should impress in the near-term, Q4... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary & Romania still playing catch-up The fact that policymakers in both Hungary and Romania are still cutting interest rates when their counterparts elsewhere in the world have begun to withdraw stimulus measures reflects the depth of... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rate cut will do little to spur economy Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its key interest rates by 25bps came as no surprise. But cuts in official interest rates will do little to spur lending in the real economy... 26th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates to stay on hold until 2011 The Czech National Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.00% this afternoon. But while the markets expect a first rate hike in the third quarter of this year, we do not expect interest rates to be... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One more reason to expect a sluggish recovery The deterioration in the growth outlook for the euro-zone adds to the substantial headwinds already facing the recovery in Emerging Europe. We have nudged down our 2011 GDP forecasts for Slovakia and... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian consumer sector to remain under pressure Despite the recent improvement in Hungarian retail sales and wage data, domestic demand will continue to weigh on growth in the near-term. All told, we expect the economy to contract once again this... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10) Market rate expectations have edged down in recent weeks, but we still think that the pace of tightening currently priced in for most countries in the region is too aggressive. While inflation has... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia’s government left in minority The collapse of Latvia’s ruling coalition earlier today underlines the difficulty of carrying out the aggressive fiscal cuts that are needed to keep the country’s IMF programme on track. 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pick-up in industry, but Czech recovery unlikely to surge ahead Data released today suggest that the Czech economy may be on course to return to growth in Q1 2010. Nonetheless, there remains little sign of a strong and sustainable recovery emerging, and we are... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed are Emerging Europe’s banks to Greece? In a recent Update we argued that the crisis in Greece has dealt a huge blow to the prospects for a further rapid expansion of the euro-zone (see Emerging Europe Update, ‘Greek tragedy to temper EMU... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: not on the brink, but the risks are still high The collapse of Ukraine’s government earlier today may paradoxically be a positive development, but a lot of progress still needs to be made before access to IMF funding is unfrozen. Accordingly... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surge in exports boosts Q4 GDP Q4 Polish GDP data released this morning confirmed an earlier preliminary estimate that the economy grew by 1.7% in 2009 and by 3.1% y/y in the final quarter of last year. But while Poland should... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian debt is safer than Turkish debt Spreads on Russian and Turkish foreign currency bonds relative to US Treasuries have moved in lockstep since October 2009. (See Chart 1.) The prospect that commodity prices (and especially oil prices)... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: NBH to continue with cautious cuts Some commentators think that this afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.75% will mark the end of the current easing cycle. However, while the... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
