Some commentators think that this afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.75% will mark the end of the current easing cycle. However, while the pace of cuts has slowed over recent months, we think that rates will still fall to 5% by the end of Q2. More important, we expect rates to remain at record lows over the next eighteen months or so. By contrast, the market is pricing in small hikes later this year.
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