Emerging Europe Economics Update Centre-right wins in Czech Republic, tough times lie ahead The recent elections in the Czech Republic appear to have produced a strong centre-right coalition, which will step up efforts at tackling the public deficit. But the looming fiscal squeeze adds to... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs still pointing to strong growth in industry Manufacturing PMIs from across the region remain consistent with continued strong growth in industrial production over the coming months. The problem, however, is that there is still little sign of... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates going nowhere regardless of new NBP Governor The proposed appointment of Marek Belka, a well-respected, pro-market economist, as the new Governor of the National Bank of Poland is not yet a done deal. But regardless of who takes over at the helm... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Worrying early signs from Hungary’s new government Hungary’s new government has got off to a disappointing start, with early signs suggesting that economic populism will take priority over much-needed fiscal reform. 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How does Estonia stack up against the euro-zone? Estonia’s low level of public debt sets it apart from the heavily indebted countries on the periphery of the euro-zone. But the country has seen a much bigger erosion of its competitive position over... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian industry surges but from a low base The surge in Russian industrial production growth in April is not quite as good as it appears at first sight since it is flattered by base effects stemming from the collapse in activity last year. In... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: low debt levels mask mounting fiscal risks Russia’s public finances are a picture of health compared to those economies in the euro-zone’s periphery. But if oil prices drop further, as we expect, spending may have to be cut in real terms for... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data paint a mixed picture Q1 GDP data released this morning from across Emerging Europe paint a mixed picture. While the economies in Central Europe all grew on a quarterly basis, those in Southern Europe contracted once again... 12th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Estonia given green light to join EMU Today’s announcement that Estonia will join the euro-zone owes much to the huge fiscal tightening enacted last year. But EMU-entry will not be a panacea for the economy, and we expect GDP to contract... 12th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish fiscal rule offers hope, but onus still on policymakers Today’s announcement of a seemingly well-designed and sensible fiscal rule in Turkey is an encouraging sign that the government is trying to get to grips with the public finances. But while a rules... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: on course for a strong bounce-back March’s industrial production data from Turkey round off an impressive start of the year for the economy. In light of other positive data releases over recent weeks, we have raised our GDP forecast to... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Tough year lies ahead for Bulgaria Despite the recent jump in Bulgaria’s budget deficit, the fiscal risks are comparatively modest. Nonetheless, the economy still faces a tough time ahead, and we expect it to contract again this year. 7th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech interest rates to stay at record lows into 2011 Today’s surprise interest rate cut in the Czech Republic reflects the ongoing lack of underlying inflation pressures in the economy, and lends further support to our view that rates are likely to... 6th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where now for Romanian interest rates? While the National Bank of Romania appears to be reaching the end of its current easing cycle, with the economic recovery still facing significant headwinds, rate hikes remain a distant proposition. 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still pushing on a string Today’s 25bp interest rate cut in Russia will do little to spur lending in the real economy. And while policymakers are likely to cut interest rates further in the near-term, there is a good chance... 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
