Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF reforms to come at a cost In stark contrast to recent developments in Hungary, the fiscal cutbacks announced by the Romanian government have so far helped to keep its IMF-led loan deal alive. But these will come at a cost. We... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary go it alone? Hungary can probably survive without a new IMF/EU programme for the remainder of this year. But we suspect it will eventually be forced to re-engage with the Fund either later this year or early in... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian recovery back on track... for now Recent data suggest that the economy is back on track for a robust rebound this year. Nonetheless, we suspect that Q2 will mark the high point for annual GDP growth and the pace of recovery is likely... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF deal breaks down This weekend’s breakdown in talks between the Hungarian government and the IMF rounds off a dire start for the new Fidesz government. While Hungary can get by without IMF funds for now, Hungarian... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation pressures still thin on the ground (Jul 10) Most countries in the region are on the road to recovery, but the large amount of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that on the whole the outlook for inflation remains extremely... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine makes the right move on gas prices Today’s announcement that Ukraine will raise consumer gas prices by as much as 50% from 1st August suggests that the government is serious about the reforms needed to keep the country’s IMF programme... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe inflation outlook still extremely benign The economies of Central Europe may be on the road to recovery but the large amounts of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that the outlook for inflation remains extremely benign... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Russia won its battle with inflation? Despite repeated warnings from Russia’s inflation hawks, price pressures in Emerging Europe’s largest economy have continued to abate. We expect disinflationary forces to dominate for a while... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there a silver lining to the euro crisis? Today’s news that Hungarian industrial production grew by a massive 5.4% m/m in May could be another sign that a weaker euro is actually helping manufacturers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But... 7th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal a tentative step in the right direction for Ukraine The financial markets’ luke warm endorsement of Ukraine’s new IMF deal is probably justified. While a new IMF programme is good news in theory, in practice its success will depend on whether or not it... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs remain consistent with further gains in industry The latest manufacturing PMIs from across Emerging Europe suggest that the impressive rebound seen in the industrial sector will continue over the coming months. However, with domestic demand still... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of a tough first half for equities A sharp sell-off over the past few days has capped a tough first half of the year for the region’s equity markets. The good news is that valuations now look cheap, pointing to a period of... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish recovery leading the way Q1 2010 GDP data from Turkey reaffirm our view that it will be the best performing economy in the region over the next year or so. However, while the pace of recovery should continue to impress in the... 30th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Constitutional Court deals blow to Romania’s fiscal cutbacks This morning’s ruling by the Romanian Constitutional Court against planned cuts to state pensions deals a blow to the government’s austerity programme. While much remains uncertain, it seems unlikely... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The real lessons from the Baltic squeeze If the recent experience of the Baltic States offers any lessons for policymakers in the West it is that aggressive fiscal consolidation at a time when the private sector is also retrenching is likely... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary holds rates once again, but still no hikes in sight There are increasing signs that Hungarian policymakers have reached the end of the monetary easing cycle. But with the economy facing a tough time over the coming years, inflation pressures will be... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
