Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek tragedy to temper EMU expansion Recent events in Greece have fundamentally weakened the economic arguments in favour of a rapid expansion of the euro-zone to include EU member states in the East. Political appetite for euro-area... 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates again, but ruble strength could be short-lived This morning’s 25bps cut in Russian interest rates may help to stem some of the upward pressure on the ruble but it is unlikely to do much to spur lending. What’s more, if oil prices fall back this... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through rise in inflation (Feb 10) Although inflation has risen across much of the region in recent months, policymakers remain in no rush to raise interest rates. For a start, the bulk of the pick-up in inflation has been caused by... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account concerns start to build After shrinking markedly from the levels seen in mid-2008, Turkey’s current account deficit has begun to widen once again. While the deficit has not yet reached danger levels, the bigger picture is... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: new MPC but interest rates going nowhere for now As expected, the replacement of Poland’s entire Monetary Policy Council (MPC) which was completed today is unlikely to mark a fundamental shift in the Council’s bias. As a result, we are sticking to... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe still mired in recession The flurry of Q4 GDP data released this morning paint a pretty grim picture. Most countries, with the notable exception of Slovakia, appear to have contracted on a quarterly basis and there is little... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing in credit confined to a handful of countries While there are tentative signs that credit conditions are starting to ease in parts of the region, the improvement has so far been confined to those countries with relatively healthy banking sectors... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Yanukovich triumphs but Ukrainian markets set for a rough ride Exit polls suggest that Viktor Yanukovich has defeated Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in the race to become Ukraine’s next President. But his margin of victory in yesterday’s run-off was slim and the... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation heading for record lows Russian inflation fell to its slowest rate in nearly three years in January. With the recovery set to lose steam over the coming quarters, we expect inflation to fall to record lows later this year. 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: interest rates cut again, but recovery to disappoint This morning’s decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to cut interest rates by 50bps to 7% is testament to the more stable political outlook that has emerged since the end of last year. With... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers will look through spike in inflation The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month was due largely to one-off factors and does nothing to change our view that the aggressive interest rate hikes now priced into the market are unlikely to... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Growth spurt to fade over 2010 Preliminary GDP data released today suggest that the Russian economy had a strong finish to 2009 and mean that GDP growth could top 6% y/y in the first half of this year. However, with the price of... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland defies the turmoil and expands in 2009 A preliminary estimate of 2009 GDP released this morning suggests that despite the turmoil in the global economy, Poland managed to grow by 1.7% last year. But while the Polish economy should continue... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Turkey’s stock market fare in 2010? The outlook for Turkish stocks is brighter than for other equity markets in Emerging Europe. Absolute gains this year will be limited by waning risk appetite, but relative outperformance seems likely. 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sell-off serves as a timely reminder The sell-off in Russian markets over the past week or so has served as a timely reminder that they are the most vulnerable in the region to shifts in global risk appetite. We expect both the ruble and... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: slower pace of easing, but rates to fall further This afternoon’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 6% suggests that policymakers will now cut rates at a slower pace than we previously thought... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
