Energy Update Lagging supply to cause oil market deficit Global oil supply fell to a multi-year low in the second quarter, and recent data point to output having fallen further in the third quarter. With demand reviving, we think the oil market is now in a... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US natural gas price to rise a little A recovery in demand at a time of constrained supply will put downward pressure on US natural gas stocks and provide a small lift to prices in 2021. 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to continue to climb higher A combination of stronger demand and higher oil prices will support the spot price of Asian LNG over the next year and a half. 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Still plenty of reasons to be positive on nickel We expect the price of nickel to make further gains between now and the end of 2021. The ongoing rise in the production of stainless steel in China will be the main factor supporting demand, while the... 14th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to stay high, for now We had previously expected the global platinum market to flip into a surplus this year as the measures taken to contain the coronavirus weighed on most types of demand for the metal. However, in light... 14th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The USDA is too optimistic on agricultural demand The recovery in China’s hog herd will support demand for corn and soybeans in 2020/21. However, our demand forecasts are not as rosy as the USDA’s and, in any case, a strong rebound in supply will... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to remain weak throughout 2021 We think that it will take over a year for oil product consumption to recover to pre-virus levels. This in turn will limit crude oil demand for the next 18 months or so and any near-term price gains. 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold price to rise a little further by year-end Earlier this week, the gold price broke through the previous record set back in 2011 to reach an all-time high. Given that we now expect real yields to continue to grind lower, we have revised upwards... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s industrial commodity import volumes to fall China’s industrial import volumes rose in July, which is consistent with the recovery in economic activity and opportunistic stockpiling at low prices. While final commodity demand will remain strong... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US crude production to tread water later this year Weekly data for June and July point to a slight recovery in US crude oil production from May’s depressed level of 10m bpd. We expect output to remain subdued for the rest of 2020. 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc rally getting a little ahead of itself Last week saw the zinc price return to its pre-pandemic level, making it the second in the S&P of Industrial Metals to do so after copper. But unlike copper, we expect the zinc market to remain... 6th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The coronavirus and agricultural demand The coronavirus has changed how people live their lives and spend their money. The consumption of almost all agricultural commodities has fallen so far this year and we expect that it will take until... 5th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s imports illustrate impact of supply on prices The latest China import data tally with our view that constrained supply will help to push the prices of most base metals higher. Conversely, the surge in iron ore shipments is consistent with our... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China manufacturing strength to boost metals demand July’s encouraging batch of PMIs for China suggest that the robust economic rebound continued into the start of Q3. And with policy support set to be stepped up, strong Chinese activity will continue... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to remain subdued Prolonged weakness in demand and high production will keep the cotton market in a surplus in 2020/21. As a result, we forecast that cotton prices will remain low over the next 18 months. 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Little to look forward to this year for US LNG exporters In recent months, cargoes of US LNG have been cancelled in record numbers as countries around the world struggle with the virus-related economic slump. After exports surged by nearly 60% y/y in the... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
