Commodities Update After a stellar 2020, China’s imports to ease back The latest China trade data showed that commodity import volume growth eased back a little in December. But tailwinds from 2020’s stimulus should keep import volumes strong for a while yet. 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Key calls for metals in 2021 After staging a stellar recovery in 2020, there is considerable momentum in metals prices as we embark on the new year. That said, while prices may rise further in the near term, we think that they... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity price forecasts for 2021 With the notable exception of oil, we are generally negative on the outlook for commodity prices this year. While oil should benefit from a vaccine-related revival in global transport activity, we... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2021 We expect the prices of most energy commodity to rise in 2021, as demand revives in line with the global economic recovery. But coal prices are likely to fall back, as demand growth in major consuming... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Saudi production cuts to boost prices If implemented, Saudi Arabia’s shock pledge to cut oil production by 1m bpd in February and March should offset much of the current lockdown-related weakness in global oil demand. Consequently, the... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China slowdown will weigh on metals prices in 2021 China’s December PMI readings suggest that the pace of economic expansion has started to ease, which chimes with our view that the demand for and, prices of, most metals will fall this year. 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Palm oil prices to go into reverse next year The price of palm oil has climbed resolutely since May, trading currently at a nine-year high of around MYR 3,800 per tonne. Nonetheless, we think that the price will fall in 2021, as supply... 23rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update European gas prices to narrow gap with Asia next year We expect the unusually large discount in natural gas prices in Europe relative to those in Asia to shrink in the year ahead as the recovery in European demand gathers pace. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore market to swing into a surplus next year The price of iron ore has skyrocketed recently, to over $155 per tonne. However, we think that the price will decline in 2021 as demand in China weakens at a time of rising supply. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The upside risks to our 2021 price forecasts We think that industrial metals prices will ease back in 2021 primarily because we expect growth in China’s demand to slow. However, we acknowledge that there are some upside risks to our price... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Taking stock of 2020 After rising steadily in the first half of the year as virus-containment measures curbed metals consumption, exchange stocks have since started to be drawn down. While this tallies with the robust... 15th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the outlook for coal-gas switching in Europe The substitution of coal for natural gas in European power generation has reversed in recent months, but we doubt that this marks the start of a new trend. Instead, we think that gas-based power in... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Reviewing the risks to our 2021 oil price forecast We forecast that a substantial pick-up in oil demand in the second half of next year amidst a backdrop of constrained supply will push Brent oil prices to around $60 per barrel by end-2021. That said... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update The risks to our gold price forecast are to the downside We expect that the price of gold will trade at around $1,900 per ounce through 2021 as US real yields remain low. That said, we recognise that there are some key downside risks to our forecast. US... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
