Commodities Update Rally in agriculturals to end, despite vaccine support We have now factored the rollout of an effective COVID-19 vaccine into our forecasts and, as a result, we are slightly more positive on the demand outlook for some agricultural commodities. That said... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports to remain resilient China’s commodity import volumes should hold up well in the coming months in part because ongoing fiscal support should continue to boost domestic demand. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Industrial metals price rally to fizzle out in 2021 Industrial metals prices have surged in recent weeks owing in large part to strong economic activity in China. And while prices should hold up during the first quarter next year, we think that they... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are unreservedly positive for commodities China’s November PMI readings surprised on the upside but were consistent with the rally in industrial metals prices last month. Given that fiscal stimulus is ongoing and export growth remains robust... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Factoring a vaccine into our 2021 forecasts The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines has prompted us to raise our forecast of global economic activity in 2021, which has positive implications for commodity demand. We think oil demand and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices to run out of steam, despite vaccine We think that the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus in China will offset any vaccine-induced boost to metals demand in 2021. And with supply bouncing back, we expect the prices of industrial metals to dip... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update New copper contract could shift pricing power to China The launch of a new copper futures contract in China should help shift pricing power in metals markets towards Asia, but the contract will not immediately become a new global benchmark. 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Platinum market to swing into a small surplus The platinum market should move into a small surplus in 2021 as demand falls and production in South Africa rebounds strongly in the wake of lighter virus-related restrictions. 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Mounting upside risks for cocoa prices The surge in the price of cocoa this week has come as a number of large risks hang over the supply outlook. But if these risks fail to materialise, we expect prices to fall back over the coming months... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Emerging Asia oil demand to lag behind China The recovery in oil demand across Emerging Asia has been highly uneven. Oil consumption in China is already back to pre-virus levels, and we think it will rise further in the year ahead. But... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China metals demand to taper off in 2021 Ongoing policy stimulus in China should continue to boost investment and industrial output in the coming months. However, we expect economic activity to gradually slow by end-2021 which is why we... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Natural rubber price to hold up … for now Strong demand from China together with constrained production should support the price of natural rubber through the first half of next year. That said, we think that prices will start to fall back by... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices to hold up despite possible vaccine While the positive developments in finding an effective vaccine against COVID-19 have boosted investor risk appetite, we still think that gold prices will remain high in the year ahead. 11th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update An effective vaccine will be a game-changer Reports of an imminent, and highly effective, vaccine against COVID-19 point to generally stronger commodities demand. Once there is more certainty on the vaccine, we will review our price forecasts. 11th November 2020 · 2 mins read
