Commodities Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Surge in China’s commodity imports has further to run The ongoing fiscal-led boost to domestic demand and a stronger renminbi propelled China’s commodity imports higher last month. This tallies with our long-held view that a rapid rebound in the Chinese... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Commodity prices can take heart from China’s PMIs China’s September PMI readings suggest that the economy is now entering a period of above-trend growth, which is indisputably good news for the prices of commodities, particularly industrial metals. 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher gold price and industrial rebound to lift silver A higher gold price, along with the ongoing recovery in industrial demand, particularly from China, means that the price of silver is likely to rise in the year ahead. 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US oil production may have peaked Although WTI crude oil prices have partially rebounded from their second-quarter nadir, oil production in the US has yet to recover. We suspect that low prices and producers struggling to source... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s “buying spree” suits its needs China is ramping up its purchases of US energy and agricultural products as promised in the Phase One trade deal. But instead of reflecting a desire to meet its obligations to the US, we think China’s... 28th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A vaccine could give oil prices a shot in the arm Although a vaccine against COVID-19 may not dramatically alter the near-term economic outlook, we expect it would structurally improve the demand prospects for many commodities and therefore boost... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to tick up by end-2021 Despite the recent falls in the prices of precious metals, we still expect the gold price to edge higher over the coming year as US real yields drift a little lower. 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s economic activity boom to support prices The rapid bounce-back in construction and industrial activity in China, reflected in our revamped China Activity Proxy, looks set to continue in the coming months as additional fiscal support is... 22nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices may be overdone Strong demand from China will put a floor under corn and soybean consumption in 2020/21. But with record expected yields in the US, we expect corn and soybean prices to come off the boil. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel price to make further gains The price of US steel has surged recently, and we think that the price will continue to rise in the year ahead as demand picks up at a time of constrained supply. 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore price rally to peter out in 2021 A combination of strong demand from China and a slow recovery in global production from its virus-related trough means that the price of iron ore is likely to remain elevated for the remainder of this... 11th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Staying positive on industrial metals Most industrial metals prices are now above their pre-virus levels, after rallying from their March lows. We reckon that the price rebound has further to go, as China’s impressive economic revival... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil prices to tread water through to year-end Brent’s recent price drop to a two-month low shows the fragile nature of its price recovery. We think that an uneven recovery in demand, combined with the hangover of vast oil stocks accumulated in... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports here to stay China’s commodity import volumes remained high in August, reflecting the broader recovery in economic activity. We expect commodity demand to remain strong in the coming months but import volumes may... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs underpin the strength in metals prices China’s August PMI readings support our view that the economy will return to its pre-virus trend by the end of this year, which is positive for almost all commodities prices, but especially industrial... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
